CHISHOLM A lot has changed in 1,000 days! The Brexit Referendum lost its mandate two years ago. Introduction This is an analysis of the many opinion polls, that have tracked public opinion regarding Brexit since the referendum. While the nature of individual polls – sample error, and methodology, typically between 1,000 and 2,500 interviews, show considerable variance, the overall picture – based on over 200 surveys, and nearly 400,000 respondents - presents a very consistent, irrefutable picture: The small majority in favour of leave in June 2016, has turned into a far more significant preference now to remain. Across three different measures, most people: ▪ Believe we should remain in the EU. ▪ Think it was a mistake to vote to leave. ▪ Given the chance to vote again, would vote to remain. People began to change their views 18 months ago Since June 2016, over 200,000 people were asked: “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU?”. The balance of opinion shiOed around July 2017. Immediately aOer the referendum, 2% to 4% more people thought it was right to Leave. Today, around 6% more people think it was a mistake to vote to Leave. ▪ The last Tme a majority of people believed we should “leave”, was July 2018. ▪ The last Tme that the split was an even 50/50 was over six months ago. The results in more detail Two key quesTons demonstrate, that the referendum no longer reflects the will of the people: ▪ “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the EU, or leave the EU?” 52 Studies. ▪ “If there was another referendum on .. membership of the EU, how would you vote?” 56 Studies. © Analysis: CHISHOLM, Source: NatCen for Social Research, Data: Research companies. Contact: jim@jimchisholm.net. +447775817797 1 CHISHOLM Of over 100 studies, only a fiAh favoured “Leave”, none of them in the last year (49 weeks). ▪ “Believe we should leave”: Sept 17. ▪ “Vote to leave”: March 2018. ▪ “Right to leave”: January 2018 While the data from individual polls, inevitably varies, the overall responses to each quesTon (the dohed lines) follow very similar trends. In both cases, the average cross-over points – from Leave to Remain – occurred before the end of 2016; over two years ago. The similarity of these results is demonstrated in this admihedly complex chart: Across all the measures, a once small preference to Leave is now a significant preference to Remain. Support to remain has been dominant for 18 months. So why have parliament, and the media focussed largely on the 40 shades of Brexit, at the expense of the arguments to remain? Jim CHISHOLM, February 2019. Note on how demographic differences have affected peoples’ attitudes. ▪ Men are slightly inclined to leave (by 3%). Women are more inclined to remain (10%). ▪ Under 24s want to remain by 36%. Over 65s want to leave by 17%. ▪ The lowest earners are inclined to leave by 1%. The highest-earners want to remain, by 14%. © Analysis: CHISHOLM, Source: NatCen for Social Research, Data: Research companies. Contact: jim@jimchisholm.net. +447775817797 2 CHISHOLM ▪ People with the lowest levels of educaTon are 16% inclined to leave. Those with the highest levels of educaTon 25% inclined to remain. © Analysis: CHISHOLM, Source: NatCen for Social Research, Data: Research companies. Contact: jim@jimchisholm.net. +447775817797 3 CHISHOLM Analysis of indicative Brexit Survey Trends How would you vote? End date Remain 06/16 06/16 10/16 04/17 05/17 05/17 05/17 05/17 05/17 06/17 06/17 06/17 08/17 09/17 09/17 10/17 11/17 12/17 01/18 01/18 01/18 02/18 03/18 03/18 04/18 04/18 05/18 06/18 07/18 07/18 07/18 07/18 08/18 08/18 08/18 09/18 09/18 09/18 10/18 10/18 11/18 11/18 11/18 11/18 11/18 11/18 11/18 12/18 12/18 12/18 12/18 01/19 01/19 01/19 01/19 01/19 53% 55% 50% 48% 49% 49% 48% 49% 48% 49% 47% 48% 53% 50% 51% 51% 59% 52% 54% 54% 51% 52% 48% 47% 52% 51% 53% 50% 53% 56% 50% 53% 53% 53% 53% 52% 52% 55% 52% 50% 54% 53% 52% 53% 51% 53% 55% 50% 52% 51% 55% 54% 56% 52% 56% 55% Leave How would you vote? 47% 7% 45% 10% 50% 0% 52% -4% 51% -1% 51% -2% 52% -3% 51% -1% 52% -4% 51% -2% 53% -5% 52% -4% 47% 7% 50% 0% 49% 1% 49% 1% 41% 17% 48% 3% 46% 9% 46% 9% 49% 2% 48% 5% 52% -3% 53% -5% 48% 4% 49% 1% 47% 6% 50% 0% 47% 7% 44% 11% 50% 0% 47% 6% 47% 7% 47% 7% 47% 6% 48% 5% 48% 5% 45% 9% 48% 4% 50% 0% 46% 8% 47% 5% 48% 5% 47% 7% 49% 2% 47% 7% 45% 9% 50% 0% 48% 4% 49% 1% 45% 11% 46% 8% 44% 11% 48% 5% 44% 12% 45% 9% >0 39.00 0% 6.00 <0 11.00 Most recent 6/17 Should we leave or remain? Should we leave End date Remain Leave or remain? 10/16 51% 49% 2% 11/16 50% 50% 0% 11/16 49% 51% -1% 12/16 48% 52% -3% 01/17 49% 51% -1% 02/17 49% 51% -1% 03/17 50% 50% 0% 04/17 50% 50% 0% 05/17 50% 50% 0% 06/17 52% 48% 3% 06/17 51% 49% 2% 06/17 51% 49% 2% 06/17 54% 46% 7% 07/17 51% 49% 1% 07/17 49% 51% -1% 08/17 51% 49% 1% 09/17 52% 48% 4% 09/17 50% 50% 0% 09/17 49% 51% -1% 10/17 52% 48% 4% 10/17 52% 48% 3% 11/17 50% 50% 0% 12/17 52% 48% 4% 12/17 55% 45% 11% 01/18 52% 48% 4% 01/18 52% 48% 3% 02/18 52% 48% 3% 03/18 54% 46% 8% 04/18 55% 45% 10% 04/18 51% 49% 1% 05/18 52% 48% 4% 05/18 50% 50% 0% 06/18 51% 49% 1% 06/18 52% 48% 3% 06/18 53% 47% 6% 07/18 53% 47% 7% 07/18 52% 48% 4% 07/18 52% 48% 5% 07/18 52% 48% 3% 08/18 54% 46% 9% 09/18 50% 50% 0% 09/18 52% 48% 4% 09/18 51% 49% 1% 09/18 53% 47% 7% 09/18 52% 48% 4% 10/18 54% 46% 8% 11/18 53% 47% 6% 11/18 54% 46% 8% 11/18 53% 47% 5% 12/18 57% 43% 13% 01/19 51% 49% 2% 01/19 55% 45% 9% 38.00 8.00 6.00 Most recent Jan-18 Right or wrong to vote to leave End date 08/16 08/16 08/16 08/16 08/16 09/16 10/16 10/16 11/16 11/16 12/16 12/16 01/17 01/17 01/17 01/17 02/17 02/17 02/17 03/17 03/17 03/17 03/17 04/17 04/17 04/17 04/17 04/17 05/17 05/17 05/17 05/17 05/17 05/17 06/17 06/17 06/17 07/17 07/17 08/17 08/17 08/17 09/17 10/17 10/17 10/17 10/17 11/17 12/17 12/17 12/17 01/18 01/18 01/18 02/18 02/18 02/18 02/18 03/18 03/18 03/18 04/18 04/18 04/18 05/18 05/18 05/18 05/18 05/18 06/18 06/18 06/18 06/18 06/18 07/18 07/18 07/18 07/18 07/18 08/18 08/18 08/18 08/18 08/18 09/18 09/18 09/18 09/18 09/18 10/18 10/18 10/18 10/18 10/18 10/18 11/18 11/18 11/18 11/18 12/18 12/18 01/19 01/19 01/19 01/19 01/19 Right 46% 45% 46% 45% 47% 46% 45% 45% 46% 44% 44% 44% 47% 46% 46% 45% 46% 45% 45% 44% 46% 44% 44% 46% 45% 46% 44% 43% 46% 44% 45% 46% 46% 44% 45% 44% 44% 45% 43% 45% 43% 44% 44% 42% 42% 42% 43% 42% 42% 44% 42% 42% 45% 40% 43% 42% 42% 44% 43% 44% 42% 42% 42% 42% 42% 43% 44% 43% 40% 44% 43% 43% 44% 43% 41% 42% 41% 42% 42% 42% 43% 43% 41% 42% 42% 43% 42% 40% 42% 42% 40% 41% 42% 41% 41% 41% 40% 41% 42% 38% 41% 40% 39% 41% 40% 40% Wrong Difference 42% -4% 44% -1% 43% -3% 43% -2% 44% -3% 43% -3% 44% -1% 44% -1% 43% -3% 45% 1% 42% -2% 44% 0% 43% -4% 42% -4% 42% -4% 42% -3% 42% -4% 45% 0% 44% -1% 42% -2% 41% -5% 44% 0% 43% -1% 42% -4% 43% -2% 43% -3% 44% 0% 45% 2% 43% -3% 45% 1% 41% -4% 43% -3% 43% -3% 45% 1% 45% 0% 45% 1% 45% 1% 43% -2% 43% 0% 45% 0% 45% 2% 44% 0% 45% 1% 47% 5% 45% 3% 44% 2% 45% 2% 46% 4% 45% 3% 45% 1% 45% 3% 46% 4% 44% -1% 46% 6% 44% 1% 46% 4% 45% 3% 45% 1% 45% 2% 48% 4% 45% 3% 46% 4% 45% 3% 45% 3% 47% 5% 45% 2% 45% 1% 44% 1% 47% 7% 44% 0% 46% 3% 44% 1% 45% 1% 46% 3% 46% 5% 46% 4% 46% 5% 47% 5% 46% 4% 45% 3% 47% 4% 45% 2% 47% 6% 47% 5% 48% 6% 46% 3% 46% 4% 47% 7% 46% 4% 47% 5% 47% 7% 46% 5% 45% 3% 47% 6% 47% 6% 45% 4% 47% 7% 47% 6% 48% 6% 49% 11% 47% 6% 48% 8% 48% 9% 47% 6% 48% 8% 50% 10% © Analysis: CHISHOLM, Source: NatCen for Social Research, Data: Research companies. © Analysis: CHISHOLM, Source: NatCen for Social Research, Data: Research companies. Contact: jim@jimchisholm.net. +447775817797 4