CLIMATE WATCH THE BULLETIN OF THE GLOBAL CLIMATE COALITION Volume 1 Issue 12 November 993 CLINTON PLAN: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES FOR INDUSTRY By John Shlaes resident Clinton?s plan for reduc- ing U.S. greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000 details almost 50 industry-related initiatives involving major efforts by 17 federal agencies, four White House departments, a White House coordinating up, two new White House working oups and several state outreach pro- grams. There are 22 presidential initia- tives to restructure government or give additional authority to agencies that will implement the plan. And it calls for $1.9 billion in federal spending and more than $60 billion in private sector investments. The administration?s program could have a signi?cant impact on all sectors of industry, especially those that form the backbone of the US. economy, which include energy production, manufactur- ing, transportation and housing. The yurshasoownedatniditradrerthm wide-ranging measures and objectives of the plan commit the United States to efforts that the administration acknowl- edges go beyond the Rio de Janeiro cli- mate treaty?s requirements, and which are far more ambitious than those of our major trading partners, including Japan and the countries of Western Europe. These facts raise serious concerns. President Clinton presented his plan as voluntary, and many groups, including GCC, support that approach. But that is not to say that business and industry sup- port objectives that go beyond the Rio accord, such as targets and timetables, for there has yet to develop any scienti?c consensus that supports catastrophic views of the future and the need for rapid, drastic actions. Also troubling is the insistence that the United States must do more than other countries to abate greenhouse gas emis- sions. The industries affected by this plan are the same ones facing the stiffest com- petition in the global marketplace. U.S. manufacturing?s impressive record of energy ef?ciency, which has produced signi?cant bene?ts of the nature advocat- ed in the government?s plan, should not be discounted. Voluntary actions by busi- hh?mhr?mm?b mmummam ness and industry that make economic sense in their own right and produce an environmental benefit constitute a ?no regrets? strategy that accurately reflects the current state of science on the issue while protecting the economy from the consequences of unjustified actions. The administration's plan also seeks to I promote greater business-government cooperation in dealing with greenhouse gas emissions. While partnerships and voluntary efforts sometimes make sense, the processes involved and the structure of the relationships must be appropriate. If what develops is a true ?shirt-sleeves" collaboration between business and gov- ernment to ?nd ways to improve efficien- cy while improving the environment, then the outcomes should be bene?cial at home and abroad. If the program becomes a bureaucratic tangle of impracti- cal and arbitrary benchmarks, an unequal partnership, or a precursor to mandatory programs, its potential will be lost. One sensible approach to controlling future increases in global greenhouse gas emissions?75 percent of which are pro- jected to originate in developing countries by the year 2005, according to the OECD -?is the ?joint implementation" concept, which would credit US. industry for pro- viding technological ?know-how" and systems that reduce such emissions in developing countries. The concept has considerable potential, if it is properly developed, re?ects a reasonable degree of ?exibility and is not fettered with myriad regulatory controls. American business and industry will be closely examining the administration?s Climate Change Action Plan, taking a measure of its costs and the feasibility of implementing its features. Ultimately, the best program for the environment is one that promotes a strong and vibrant econo- my and makes possible continued invest- ment in technologies that are cleaner and 7 moreenergye?icient. THE CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION PLAN: A SUMMARY he Climate Change Action Plan was developed through an interagenc'y proc ess that involved the White Home, the Environmental Protection Agech and the Departmean of Agricul- ture, Commerce, Energy, Interior, State, Transportation and Treasury. Public input was obtained through a White House Con- ference on Climate Change in Washington, DC, on lune 10 and ii, 19?) i, as well as through a series of workshops that involved experts from the private sector, the envi- ronmental community and academia. With the goal of fulfilling the presi- clent?s Earth Day pledge to return U.S. greenhouse gas emisSIons to their 1990 levels bv 2000, the plan calls for compre- hensive measures, cost-effective domestic actions, coordinated federal activity, and pannership lx?tween government and industry. It includes nearly 50 initiatives to reduce all significant greenhouse gases carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons and other gas- es. These measures involve all sectors of the economy that emit greenhouse gases, with emphasis on energy production, transportation, homes, office buildings, forestry and agriculture. Among these initiatives is protection of forests as green- house gas "sinks" that store carbon removed from the atmosphere. Much of the plan is voluntary, not only to minimize delays in implementation by ClideActionle wmaamnum duhmu?uionwl?im Toadime Cthi legislative or regulatory esses, but also to give the private sector maximum flexi- bility in devising Innovative and cost- effective emissions reduction programs. The plan calls for expanding partner- ships between government and the private sector and seeks to stimulate Investment future technologies to strengthen Anteri- ca's position In the global environmental tec hnology marketplace. the plan lever~ ages $60 billion in private investment between t?i?i4 and 2000, whic is Intend- ed to lead to $60 billion In reduced energy costs during that period, With continued benefits of more than $200 billion in ener- . gy savings between 2001 and 2010. To ensure cost-effectiveness and rapid implementation, the plan will expand cooperative programs that already have demonstrated success on limited budgets, largely hv redirecting resources from oth- er programs. Between 1994 and 2000, the administration will commit $1.9 bil- lion in new and redirected funding to such programs. In addition. the plan contains two new defic it-reduction policies. One would allow commuters to ?cash-out" employer- paid parking by taking the value of the fringe benefit as taxable income, and the other would permit private development at existing federal hydroelectric facilities in sures would raise $2.7 billion in federal revenue between 1994 and 2000. A White House task force will monitor implementation of the plan and will insti- Toward-thrill? mbyUSIuoade Ll exchange for lease payments. These mea- tiite new programs as needed to ensur. that emissions retluc tions are made. Antic ratification of the UN. lramework onvention on ('limate hange in early l?i?i-l, the administration predicts that the first opportunity to evalu- ate and revu-w the plan will come Within a year. ()nc the convention enters into force, nations will have six months to sub- niit a National Action Plan to the ('onterenc of Parties of the onvention. The administration expects the new action plan, or an updated version, to form the cornerstone of the NAP. The plan also seeks to extend beyond its focus on short-term, domestic solutions. It establishes a White House team to develop strategies for long-term emissions reductions, including emissions from automobiles and truc ks. It also includes a joint implementation pilot program (see box) to help the United States gain experi- ence in evaluating investments in other countries f0r emissions reduction benefits. Such experience can be used in future international effons to develop criteria joint implementation. 0 Warming (omrnuedlrom rm? ed by the models). Also, while climate models have projected a decreased day- night temperature difference and a rise in nighttime temperatures, the magnitude of the modeled change is substantially smaller than the observed The scientists believe that only part of the observed temperature change can be attributed to urban growth and that decreasing day-night temperature differ- encesmayberelatedtothecombined effects of cloud cover over continents, an increase in greenhouse gases and increased industrial sulfur emissions. Whatever the causes of the temperature its effects. According to Larry Kalkstein, professor of climatology at the University of Delaware, "The potential benefits of nighttime warming, such as a longer growing season and fewer killing frosts, may be offset by the liabilities of increased pest infestatiOns, reduced aop- growing area and higher heat-related human mortality.? 0 ANNOUNCE ENT ASSERTS GLOBAL WARMING THREAT he announcement of President lin- ton's (,limatef hange Ar tion Plan on October drew mixed revrews, with partic ular ronc ern about the ac urac of assumptions made about the inevitability of global wanning. Following are exc erms from the president's speech: look down the road and recognize that even with imperfect sc ientif- ic knowledge, at some point the impulse to give people something to do would have to be reconciled with the obligation to pre- serve the planet we all share, and that if there were ways through the use of tech- nology and partnerships and ingenuity to actually enhance economic opportunities while preserving the planet, how much better off we would be. 'That is what we sought to do in this meet headon the seri- threat of global give the 'can people the ability to compete and win in the global ecommy, while meeting our most deep and profound envi- ronmental challenges. 'lTheplanl isaveryaggressiveandvery speci?c first step. I would argue the most aggressive and the most specific first step thatany nation' onthis planet hastaken in the face of perhaps the brggat' environmen? tal this planet. 'We simply must halt global warming. andtooureoonomy. llcnovvthatthepre~ cise magnitude and pattems of climate change cannot be fully predidcd, but glob- al clearly is a gromng' long-term throat with profound comequenoes. ?The problem. frankly, affects every sec- tor of the economy. 11m are 0 improve energy ef?ciencies in oormtercial buildiny and I) make bear housdtold appliance. There are new agreements with piblic new public-pri- We: to increase the efficienq of induarial motors. "lhe action establishes the Unit- States as a world leader in protecting the global climate. tmgeotherindustna'l oomtries' to move rapidly to produce plans as detailed, as realistic and as achievable as ours.? CLIMATE WATCH How WERE NUMBERS CALCULAIEDZ CONGRESS AND PUBLIC STILL WAITING TO HEAR hstimony on the Climate Change Action Plan before several congressional oomrnittees during the week of October 25, administration witnesses were calculating projected greenhouse gas emissions in the year 2000. However, this information was not available. Dr. Susan Tierney, DOE assistant secretary for policy, planning and program evaluation, told one committee chairman that an report outlining the White House analysis would be supplied 'w'rthin two WG-0 lmloolono 1000 Ion-n Duo- Ira-o In Duhhb?m rnorigthegovemment-irdustry A puttershipstheadniniaration Mandolinka electricmilitiesthathavepmb havetheopportunity' tochoosefroma widerargeofcontroloptionsandto upen?mentwithinrmativeldeasb achievetheirreductiongoals; mostcost-eflearve? meansavailablennd PARINERSHIPS ANNOUNCED UNDER THE PLAN 0 DOE Motor Clutter-g9: Under non-legally binding 'compacts,? DOE. motor system manufacturers, industrial motor users and utilities promote and improve the efficiency of electric motor systems in industrial applications. 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