/

'

_]
]

,
·-

--- - ---

9
Imperial Oil

]

J
]
]

J
J

A Discussion Paper on
Potential Global Warming

]

]
]

]
]

MARCH,

1 99 0

 /

J
FOREWORD

As a leading
industrial
company in Canada and a major
producer
of fossil
fuels,
petroleum
products
and petrochemicals,
Imperial
Oil Limited
has an important
stake
in the development
public
policy
to address
the
growing
environmental
issue
climate
change.

l
]
]

]

]

1
l
l
J

l
l

of
of

At
Imperial,
we
are
committed
to
fulfilling
our
environmental
responsibilities
to society,
to being
part
of the
solution.
It is in this
context
that
we present
the following
discussion
paper on potential
global
warming.
The paper does not
purport
to offer
a solution,
but we believe
it
will
make a
valuable
contribution
toward it.
Much scientific
impact human activities
the atmosphere
could
step
is
to
fill
in
priorities
include
country,
and others;
fostering
development

uncertainty
surrounds
the debate
about
the
and a build-up
of "greenhouse
gases 11 in
have on global
climate.
An important
first
the
gaps
in scientific
analyses.
Other
assessing
economic
consequences
for
this
determining
a range of response
options;
and
of new technology.

Imperial
Oil is committed
to help meet these
challenges.
We
work program,
which is outlined
in
have undertaken
an extensive
the paper,
to advance
our comprehension
of the . implications
of
Over
potential
global
warming for our company and our country.
the next months,
we hope to share
these
results
as part
of our
contribution
to the broad consultative
process
on environmental
issues
facing
Canada.
We welcome

your

comments

and suggestions.

~h1c:;}rul! ~4~
J.D. McFarland
Vice-President,
Environment

A.R. Haynes
Chairman and
Chief Executive

Officer

 /

TABLE OF CONTENTS

•

Executive

•

Introduction

•

Potential

Summary

Global
Impact

Warming

of Greenhouse

Canadian
Energy

1

Carbon
Use

in

The Canadian
Canada

in

Commitments
Imperial
Federal

•

References

This docunent has been
printed on recycled paper

Gases

Dioxide

Emissions

12

15

Canada

18

Challenge

23

Perspective

Key Observations

•

ll

and

25

Conclusions

and Recommendations
Oil
Government

28
31
31
33
36

 /

l
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

J

l
J

I
]
I,,

This

discussion

within

paper

Imperial

contributing
issue

of

makes

Oil

to

wants

potential
addition,

warming

for

wish

policy

key environmental

the

context

Imperial

and

framework

for

issues

facing

important

role

of

of

the

energy

in this

for

use.

spirit,

the

will

In

federal

developing
that

of

Canada.

that

in
Canada

purpose

implications

presented

consider

of

and,
the

to

the

developed

consideration

assess

are

been

for
and

in

to

warming

may

have

of any solution,

recommendations

government

global

discussion

commitments

global

which

("Imperial")

public
global

specific

views

Limited

to be a part

environmental

J

the

potential

Imperial

outlines

its

new

encompass

the

country,

including

to

play

part

the

potential

warming.

I,

I

Canada

has

community

an
in

us,

but

the

global

the

imperative

safeguarding

and maintaining

role

be decisive

this

scene.

and Canada's

keep

to

strengthen
competitor.

Canadian
to

maintain

the

the

that

forefront
its

own

the
in

must

economic

in a global

new environmental

believes
the

actions

competitiveness

In developing
Imperial

cannot

the
the

policy

participants

progress

economy

Canada

and

The market-oriented

position
approaches

-

1 -

as

terms
also

of

the

world

environment
of

around
impact

its

be consistent

well-being

of

trading

still
as
that

with

the

world

economy.

framework
must

on

at

for

the

needs
an
are

Canada,

same
to

time

make to

international
contributing

 /

to

this

progress

as

instruments

cha ·llenge

the

environmental

the

costs

federal

for

and

This

discussion

is

dioxide

The

responses,

such

so

The
building

focuses

and associated
The

and

forecasts

The

key

warming

is

the

community;

demand.

rational

of

It

warming.

base

that

and

to help.

consumption

data

both

risks

process

contribution.

global

and

clearly

be forthcoming.

the

committed

potential

challenges.

associated

will

be used

on

carbon
discussion

of Canadian

observations

and

are:

possibility

potentially

of
serious

many scientific
commitment

to

particular

solutions

for

will

is

the

responses.

- 2 -

to

no

have
needs

of

a

complex ·

and uncertainties

warming

areas

world

positively

hig ·h priority

deficient

potential

issue

responding

global

Therefore,

global

contradictions

potential

the

one
fuel

supply

the

spearhead
is

to

understand

issues,

to

extensive

energy

conclusions

•

to

on Imperial's
world

is

of fossil

emissions

to

solutions

urged

paper

be

potential

Imperial

relationship

and

of

possible,

environmental

will

and cost-effective
government

wherever

address

economic

benefits

understanding.

draws

to

Canadians
and

this

the

be extended,

of change

The

objectives

must

to

be

science

however,
remain.

the

guarantee

the

to

A

issue
that

appropriate
placed

and

on
better

of
the

effect.
improving
guide

 /

1-

B

i
l
l

contributes

global

carbon

combustion,
in

the

and this

future.

actions

Further,

to

be

is

to

expected

fossil
remain

country

makes

emissions.

and

economies.

rates

of

greatest

growth

This
rather

is

the

achieve

than

the

countries

carbon

in

of
fuel

unchanged
a dominant

means
than

that

unilateral

essential

route

to

relatively

greater

rates

economic

to

the

reduce

are

as

more mature

the

to

emissions

countries

significantly

adds .

accords

dioxide

developing

Accommodating

developing
potential

from

countries,

growth

industrialize

1.

emissions

2% share

outcome.

addition,

economic

small

among countries,

by individual

expected

f:

relatively

no one

these

actions

a constructive

In

a

share

to

cooperative

•

only
dioxide

contribution

J
J

Canada

they
of

industrial

aspirations

complexity

global

of
of

carbon

any

dioxide

emissions.

•

Potential

global

challenge.

warming,

In

response,

unilaterally.

This

like -ly

Canada's

at

damage

best,

achieve

potential
is

the

possibility

would

he

their

operations

constructive

is

not

only

to

because

international

an

international

should

not

such

action

Of even

in

unilateral

Canadian

whereby

industries

simply

countries

action.
-

3 -

which

are

the

importance

costly

those

and,

mitigating

greater

act
would

competitiveness

improvement

warming.
that

ineffective,

is

Canada

negligible

'
global

for

therefore,

action
redirect

not

taking

 /

•

While

market

forces

energy

efficiency,

dioxide

emissions

would

likely

Canada's

the

•

is

has

examined

dioxide

as

illustration,
could

replace

four

over

emissions

to

new

be

in

of

in

long

forces

and

Canada's

based

than

appropriate

or
very

nuclear

or

most

Canadian

consumers,

jeopardize

Canada's

if

international

- 4 -

to

facilities
equivalent

addition,

of
a

50%

energy

efficiency

gains

I mperial

forecasts

may not

would,

intervention

and,

challenge.

$50 billion

the

In

by 2005

fleet

They

carry

the

about

.

may or

necessary.

levels

of

2005 with

the

steps

stabilize

generation

plants

double

Such

Canada,

of

automobile

significant
in

in

to

1988

size

electricity

average

required,

at

the

an expenditure

Darlington

period.

marketplace

fuel

of

and

energy,

scenario

Canada

be in operation

the

require

climate

of

Canada

because

of market

fossil

carbon
in

partly

cold

possible

only,

require

improvement
would

one

70% of coal-fired

expected

,

a result

less

reduce

in

nations.

carbon

This

costly

sources

already

industrial

an

as

improvements

combustion

economy,

well-endowed

economy

Imperial

fuel

and

addition,

country's

other

difficult

further

appreciably

fossil

intensive

In

to

to

from

energy

energy

lead

steps

be

distances.

will

very
done

in
i nto

prove
any
the

substantial
in

isolation,

competitiveness.

to

be

event,
economic

costs

for
could

 /

·1
•

l

Canada's

first

priority

of a significantly
and

1

1

to

the

atmosphere.

up

research

mitigate

is

•

could

view

the

for

be placed
most

be

gases

in

on stepping

cost-effective
gas

increased

emissions

or

concentrations

atmosphere.

that

the

possibility

issue

and

is

Imperial

might

greenhouse

the

of

scientific

that

greenhouse

impacts
in the

serious

of

reduce

of the

of

also

development

and for

committed
Canada.

of

global

to

warming

understanding

More specifically,

will:

develop
in
costs

•

that

shares

Imperial

should

development

the

actions

buildup

and

gases

implications

the

potential

foster

understanding
of

Priority

the

a potentially

the

reduce

of greenhouse

Imperial

be to

consequences

technologies

I

improved

economic

contemplated

1

should

an

its

inventory

operations
to

reduce

and
these

determine

the

additional

energy

operations,

of

with

greenhouse

identify

gases

feasible

that

are

emitted

opportunities

and

potential

for

emissions;

technical

and

efficiency
an

eye

emissions;

- 5 -

economic

opportunities
to

reducing

in

all

carbon

of

its

dio xi de

 /

1

•

determine,

in

community,

]

how

its

facilities

and

to

potential

address

will

J

dialogue

be

with
extensive

external

energy

governments
research

research
global

usage,

and . the

capabilities

programs

warming.

considering

scientific

can

The
both

and

be

utilized

primary
input

context

and

output

for

carbon

implications;

•

determine

the

dioxide
from

technical

"sinks,"
the

or

and

mechanisms

atmosphere,

such

oil-bearing

reservoirs

operations,

or

economic

into

to

as

to

potential
remove

carbon

underground

dioxide

injection

into

support

enhanced

oil

recovery

saline

aquifers

for

disposal

deep

purposes;

•

develop

"life

emissions
various

•

carry

for

out

a comprehensive
potential

transportation

•

for
sector,

of environmental

assess
being

fuels

fossil

of

and

their

greenhouse

gas

alternatives

in

end-uses;

economic

range

assessments

cycle"

the

fuel

such

of

switching

including

the

with

technical
emphasis

an assessment

of

and
on the

the

full

consequences;

macro-economic

contemplated

emissions,

assessment

consequences

by governments
as carbon

or fuel

-

6 -

to

to

Canada

reduce

taxes.

of options

carbon

dioxide

 /

Imperial
work,

expects
as they

become

leading

In

the

environmental
may wish

•

to

to be in a position
available,

share

beginning

process

overall

policy

to

framework

for

the

results

of this

in mid 1990.

developing

of
Canada,

the

the

federal

new

government

consider:

spearheading
engages

a

the

interest

broad

three

levels

groups,

create

this

consultative
of

academia

framework

process

government,

and
and

the
to

in

1990

industry,

general

public

public

facilitate

that

to

the

help

national

consensus-building;

•

establishing

a

dialogue

sector-by-sector
the

Canadian
to

analysis

environmental

government.

of

Industrial

Program

these

and

opportunities

similar

improvements

in achieving

industry

challenges,

A framework

facilitate

helpful

with

in
to

stimulating
to

partnership
that

employed

for

Energy

Conservation

in

energy

efficiency

goals.

- 7 -

respond

a
to
with

by

the

(CIPEC)
might

be

 /

/

)
INTRODUCTION

]

l

A

plan

to

environmental
Bouchard,
to

the

develop

a

program

was

federal

environment

support

the

plan

will

be

developed

will

be

facing

potential

global

Imperial

Oil

development

of

fossil

fuels

the

will

warming

attention

It
being

commitments
start

immediately

1989

by

A policy
Agenda

expected

address

the

Canada"

this

key

Lucien

framework

for

that
the

including

policy

has
in

company

in

gas

believes

solution

and
in

the
Canada

and

Imperial

presents

framework.

to

and

is

national

--

framework

environmental

emerging

issue

of

an important

stake

environmental

area.

and

coal),

petroleum

that
that

the

a major

it
it

has
is

search

the
As a

producer

of

products

an obligation

in

in

its

for

and
to be

interests
realistic

to
·

and

solutions.

paper

global

It

actively

cost-effective

October

minister.

("Imperial")

(oil,

participate

This

1990.

public

industrial

of

in

"An Environmental

Canada,

Limited

petrochemicals,

announced

long-term,

warming.

leading

part

in

wide-ranging

challenges

a

--

comprehensive,

and
is
paid

the
i .ts

company's
place

presented

addressing
These

this
are

the

now

worldwide

and recommended

.

in

initial

to

because
this

actions
important

focused

-

new

for

of

the

potential
policy

accelerated

We conclude

Imperial
issue

on

environmental

issue.

on increasing

8 -

views

with

and governments
of
the

public

policy

understanding

 /

of

the

scientific

economic

aspects

consequences

of

potential

of possible

global

public

warming

policy

and

the

initiatives.

]
Canada

:q.as a

and

environmental

challenges

change,

atmosphere
cannot

I
I

to

safeguarding

climate

1

role

Canadian

air

to

the

also

its

competitor.

its

of

th~

own

this

progress

as

instruments

challenge

the

environmental

the

costs

government
understanding.

for

and
and
is

progress

to

Canadians
and

of

solutions
to

Imperial

scene.

imperative
and

as

to

Canada's

the

an

be
issues,

potential

to

committed

- 9 -

the

to help.

make to

to

be used

challenges.

so

forthcoming.
process

time

contributing

clearly

associated

responses,
be

same
to

possible,

understand
the

Canada,

international

are

environmental

will

for

needs

that

wherever

address

at

still

position

spearhead
is

the

world

must

approaches

will

global

framework

Ganada

and

economic

benefits

urged

policy

be extended,

of change

The

objectives

must

but

economy.

participants

economy

and .upper

important

on the

the

The

-·- potential

is

with

in

us.

management

impact

trading

the

around

role

consistent

The market-oriented

to

waste

well-being

that

forefront

strengthen

be

conununi ty

and interl~cking

quality,

of

world

environment

new environmental

believes

the

Canada's

in a global

the

of

global

terms

economic

In developing

keep

in
must

competitiveness

Imperial

are

depletion.

actions
the

part
the

and water

decisive

maintain

as

maintaining

ozone

be

play

risks
that
The

of

both

building

and

rational
federal
this

 /

This

discussion

draws

on views

where

public

being

1

compatible

with

market-based

paper

issues

the

such

contribution.

expressed

previously

of

vital

and

In
in

to

strengthen

federal

the

company

These

Canadian

were

"Energy
views

government

it

f-orums

trade,

security.

the

part,

other

the

Canada-u.s.

energy

initiatives
to

interest

included

reform,

years

one

has

These

tax

This

I

policy

debated.

recent

is

Imperial

Options",

in

J

paper

has

economy

are
taken

through

approaches.

also

draws

forecasts

of

energy

affiliated

companies.

on
use

the

extensive

that

are

-

10 -

r

data
maintained

base,
by

analyses

and

Imperial

and

 /

POTENTIAL GLOBAL WARMING

Imperial

cannot

add significantly

global

climate

forecasting

gases

in

atmosphere.

the

perspective

on the

the

implications

ensuing

The scientific

the

simple

terms,

carbon

dioxide

earth's

recent

potential
are
agree

This

years,

there

temperatures
on whether

the

warming

time.
forecasting

nitrous

a tolerable
water

surface

to

range.

In

vapour

and

energy

from

the

temperature,

oxide

warming

effect

will

affect

individual

is

much

contradictory

uncertain.

the

-

11

earth

particular,

and

has

not

·warm,

might
or

that
global

cannot

or

evidence

-

methane,

higher

scientists
has

that

dioxide,

to

countries

In

the

Scientists

increasing

lead
But

rate

about

atmosphere.

are

ahead.

what

debate

of carbon

or

is

was well

from human activities
in the

any,

There

at

fundamental

possibly

decades

a human-induced
if

mechanism

growing

resulting

may

the

on

in Canada.

effect

earth's

been

changes

and

in

the

a

and

greenhouse

re-radiated

concentrations

concentrations

how much,

has

change

atmospheric

development

within

of the

offer

as we know it.

to be causing

that

a

can

argument

chiefly

maintains

on earth

climate

is

gases
iome

life

chlorofluorocarbons
these

so-called

technical

with

of greenhouse

company

policy

temperature

absorb

for

believed

the

atmospheric

facilitating

In

public

associated

impact

the

the

for

It

science

potential

of

ago.

earth's

surface.

the

However,

for

decades

maintaining

and the

robustness

basis

established

to

agree
begun,
and how

regions

over

and

analytical

the

radiative

 FIGURE 1

RELATIVE IMPACTS OF GREENHOUSE GASES
GREENHOUSE GASES IN THE ATMOSPHERE
ATMOSPHERIC ANNUAL RATE
CONCENTRATION OF INCREASE
.(%)
(PPM)

CARBON DIOXIDE
METHANE
CFC'S
NITROUS OXIDE
OZONE

350

0.4

1.7

1.0

0 .0006
.3 1

5 .0
0.2 5
-

VARIABLE

RELATIVE WARMING IMPACTS
IF...

CARBON DIOXIDE = 1
METHANE
= 25X
NITROUS OXIDE > 500X
OZONE
> 1000X
CFC'S
> 10000X

CONTRIBUTION TO WARMING EFFECT
• CFC'S ARE FASTEST GROWINGAND
HIGHEST IMPACT PER UNIT

~
CO2-

50%

\
\

\

• CARBON DIOXIDE IS THE LARGEST
CONTRIBUTOR
• METHANE IS THE SECOND LARGEST
CONTRIBUTOR, IS GROW.ING2.5 TIMES
FASTER AND HAS 25 TIMES MORE
IMPACT PER UNIT THAN CO2

GREGAS.DRW

ADAPTED FROM: RAMANATHAN.''The greenhouse theory of climate change : A Test by
lnadvertant Global Experiment" , Science , Volume 240.

·,,

 /

]
properties
not

of

well

clouds

and

the

impact

of

oceanic

circulation

are

understood.

J
As an

I

endeavouring

I
I
I

model
show

of

to

the

make

projections

rainfall

and

gases

difficulties

quantitative

of

differing

greenhouse

faced
predictions,

regions

impacts

of

the

half

century.

next

climatologists

various

in particular

opposing

over

by

an

computer

of the

assumed

world

doubling

of

(l)

IMPACT OF GREENHOUSE GASES

In

I
I

'

illustration

Canada,

recent

contribution

to

emissions,

public
potential

particularly

However,

carbon

dioxide

'

greenhouse

gases

I

greenhouse

effect.

volume

of

any warming

gas

and
(2 )

effect.

were

contributing

have
only

has

also

the

fuel

of

low

heat

12 -

ozone

reduce

gases.
are

. other

estimates
the

to

the

·of

the

annual
per
each

of

makes

to

most

rapidly

per

unit

of

effect,
their

rate

unit

the

concentration,

any warming
to

combustion.

capacity

increase

the

dioxide

be contributing

contribution

most

on

greenhouse

atmosphere,

to

focus
carbon

and

set

trapping

action
-

to

one

the

15% to
taken

oxide.

potential

trap

from

of several

1 shows
in

to

fossil

thought

a relatively

about

already

one

expected

They also

currently

from

heat
the

tended

nitrous

gases

relative

concentration.

community

are

these

Chlorofluorocarbons

They

warming

only

Figure

the
each

is

which

of

buildup,

global

methane,
.

'

of

has

those

Chlorofluorocarbons,

concentration

debate

in

volume.

potentially
and the
use.

world

 r.t-rr,TT~T:I

,

FIGURE2

Annual Carbon Fluxes
Billions of Metric Tons
ANNUAL INCREMENT
.IN ATMOSPHERE

[TI
FOSSIL FUELS

w

RESPIRATION

PHOTOSYNTHESIS

DEFORESTATION

SOIL RESPIRATION

PHYSICO-CHEMICAL

PHYSICO-CHEMICAL

BY PLANTS

BY PLANTS

121

fscil

. DIFFUSION

DIFFUSION

~

11001

,,

(109 Metric Tons)

World Vegetation

560

World Soils

1,500

Atmosphere

735

Oceans

Fossil Fuel Reserves

36,000

5,000 to 10.000

 /

properties
not

of

well

clouds

and

the

impact

of

oceanic

circulation

are

understood.

'I

J

J
J

As an

endeavouring
model
show

1
I

...

illustration

of

to

make

projections

greenhouse

rainfall

and

gases

difficulties

quantitative

of

differing

the

faced
predictions,

in

regions

impacts

of

the

half

century.

next

climatologists

various

particular

opposing

over

by

an

computer

of the

assumed

world

doubling

of

(l)

IMPACT OF GREENHOUSE GASES

In

Canada,

recent

contribution

to

emissions,

public
potential

particularly

However,

carbon

dioxide

gases

greenhouse

effect.

volume

of

any warming

gas

and

were

have
only

has

of

also

several

greenhouse

1 shows

one

the

·and

ozone

of

potential

gases.
are

other

estimates

atmosphere,

trapping

combustion.

be contributing

set

the

to

the

of

the

annual

capacity

contribution

the

dioxide

fuel

to

on

carbon

fossil

oxide

thought

in

from

focus

per
each

rate

unit

of

makes

to

<

expected

They also

contributing

one

to

2)

effect.

currently

from

heat
the

tended

nitrous

gases

relative

concentration.

community

are

these

Chlorofluorocarbons

They

warming

only

Figure

the
each

is

which

of

buildup,

global

methane,

greenhouse

of

has

those

Chlorofluo~ocarbons,

concentration

debate

the

a relatively

about

already

trap

to

15% to
taken

most
low

heat

12 -

to

the

most

rapidly

per

unit

of

concentration,

any warming

action
-

increase

reduce

effect,
their

in

volume.

potentially
and the
use.

world

 FIGURE2

Annual Carbon Fluxes
Billions of Metric Tons
ANNUAL INCRE:MENT
IN ATMOSPHERE

IT]
FOSSIL FUELS

RESPIRATION

IT]

PHOTOSYNTHESIS
BY PLANTS

BY PLANTS

[fil

DEFORESTATION
,----,

SOIL RESPIRATION
,----,

PHYStcO-CHEMICAL

PHYSICO-CHEMICAL

. DIFFUSION

DIFFUSION

1100

I

'
Size of Reservoir
(109Metric Tons)
World Vegetation
World Solis
Atmosphere
Oceans
Fossil Fuel Reserves

560
1.500

735
36 .000
5,000 to 10,000

 ]

]

Al though

methane

potentially

warming

effect,

it

effectively

J

methane

]

activities;

than
is

sources

]

J

dioxide

potentially

l
l

contributes

contrary

to

is

natural

and

is

that

simply

carbon

human

by plants

and the

2 shows

an

carbon

into

out

carbcn

buildup

to

of this

suggest

human

and

of

certain,

sourcas

that

combustion

this

human

part

from

with

wetlands,

greenhouse

any

warming

pote~tial

combustion,

the

into

the

atmosphere

part

·of

and

But
from

fuel

generation

effect.

and

effect

fossil

are

gases

warming

of

and
of

in

and

more complex.

50% to
the

landfills

emissions

of the

an issue

3)

estimate(
of

the

three
but

this

contributing

of

the

follow

a large,

from

complex,

absorption

current

atmosphere.
billion

what

of

is

less

is

is

in

carbon

about
13 -

fluxes

net

atmosphere

is

are

but

incomplete

directly
fuel

estimate,
five

the

billion

to

of

annual

certain

fossil

particular

-

strong

linked

particular

annual

An estimated

tonnes

There

buildup
in

By

is

with

as

emissions

buildup.

activities,

deforestation.

associated

oceans.

Figure

relatively

Many

such

that

cycle

dioxide.

correlate

activities

well-understood

carbon

which

plentiful

view

of

of

about

a popular

dioxide

reality

not

most

concentration

paddies,

are

any

the

rice

sources

the

25

cattle,
all

2 0% to

more

than
are

and termites

is

about

times

As well,

emissions

Other

only

approximately

rapidly

include

permafrost

carbon

more

activities,

population.
thawing

heat

dioxide.

methane

fuel

Carbon

]

carbon

these

fossil

traps

increasing

of

contributes

the

precise
evidence

the

growth

combustion
world
tonnes

in
and

fossil

fuel

of

carbon

 /

J
J

(or

18

billion

atmosphere.

J
J

tonnes

Figure

2

fluxes

]
]

atmospheric

1

l

carbon

is

alter

natural

irrelevant.

a

foregoing
brqad

is

it

numerous.

the

potential

responses.

cost.
have

of

great

the

could

to

the

much as

that

the

difficulty

place

two

priority
the

it

it

is

analyses

in achieving

-

14 -

change

balance

of

rate

of

growth

accelerate

policies

about

of

or

man-made

possible

global

uncertainties

about

positively

solutions

will

to

be

to

the

have

the

placed

on

science

to

better

guide

prudent

to

reduce

carbon

can be accomplished

following

the

future

needs

of

in

climate
If

responding

particular

well

uncertainty

potential

issue

less

as a background

of this

scientific
to

un9ertainty,

wherever
the

make

the

areas

and

dramatically

could

High

such

larger

future.

remaining

deficient

emissions
However,

the

A commitment

effect.

face

as

that

that

and the

improving

dioxide

that

no guarantee

appropriate

the

contributing

taking

shift,

dioxide

way

are

in

illustrates

warming

In

fluxes

to

carbon

emissions

is

annually

much

possibility

were

in

issue

very

balance

fluxes

are

be

dioxide)

The importance

the

their

decrease

The

that

human activities.

might

]

could

shows

natural

natural

]

carbon

annually.

also

understood
these

of

Deforestation

billion

to

tonnes

indicate

meaningful

at
that

reductions

little

or no

Canada

would

in

 FIGURE 3

CANADIAN ENERGY DEMAND AND CO2 EMISSIONS
1988
ENERGY DEMAND

CO2 EMISSIONS
OIL 55%

OTHER4%

'

HYDRO28%
8

11.3 1d J

529

6

10 t

 _,

carbon
were

I
I

dioxide
taken

alone

effort,

would

Canada's

small

fossil

emissions.

fuel

Moreover,

rather
have

than

as

negligible

2% share

of

any
part

such
of

impact

global

efforts,

a

wider

globally,

carbon

if

they

cooperative
because

dioxide

emissions

of
from

combustion.

CANADIAN CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS

As

an

industrialized

Canada

country

consumes

with

significant

tends

to be concentrated

which

there

is

throughout

The

the

of

in certain

variation

discussion

companies'

demand

in Canada

Figure

3 illustrates

data

and around

standards,

fossil
uses

in carbon

is

based

and

forecasts

fuels.

and regions,

dioxide

emissions

end-use

emissions

largest

source

of

The remainder

from

emissions,
is

on

Imperial's
of

energy

and
supply

its
and

the .world.

Canadian

dioxide

total.

living

country.

following

affiliated

a wide

high

quantities

Consumption
means

very

split

energy

demand

fossil

fuels

accounting
about

and coal.

- 15 -

equally

and associated
in
for

1988.
about

between

Oil

carbon
is

the

55% of

the

natural

gas

 FIGURE 4

CO2 EMISSIONS BY SECTOR AND FUEL SOURCE
CANADA - 1988 .
200 --~--

~~

~ ----~----------------~------------,

179
166
Ct::

~

150 ·

>-

"wz
U)

109

z 100

0

1-

z

-0_J

'

_J

2

50

0

INDUSTRIAL

TRANSPORTATIONPOWER GENER'N

RESIDENTIAL

COMMERCIAL

r----- ·--------------------------------------------------

Ll~l_ ~A~

~

OIL

D

OIL -

NON ENERGY rgsJCOAL

I

 /

I

As

displayed

in

combinations

dominate

oil

as the

coal

for

natural
oil

Figure
most
as

carbon

that

which

of

dioxide

in Alber~a

have

important

the

various

and

residential

production,
climate

regional

and

such

lubricating

oils

are

sector.

The largest

next

power

also

commercial

sector,

largest

source

generation,

in Ontario

of

primarily

and the

Atlantic

play

a lesser

sectors

in

Canada,

carbon

dimension.

transportation,

commercial,

are

variations
but

availability

of

a significant

nuclear
role.

-

16

-

in

emissions
factors

such
and

emissions

by region
power

compared

in

other

dioxide

Emissions

industrial,

population

play

uses

transportation

The

the

emissions.

issues

sectors,

in the

in

generated

when non-energy

in this

was oil

was coal

sector

and

fuel

emissions

the
also

dominant

automobiles.

regional
to

asphalt

from

major

fuels

industrial

in Canada

and

most

related

the

The residential

As with

significant

1988,

emissions

dioxide

in Canada:

fuel

but

in carbon

an

transportation

and Saskatchewqn,

provinces.

dioxide

sector

fuel

emissions

60% was

industrial

generation

feedstocks,

source

role

power

was the

and

of carbon

of most

in

dioxide

Oil

fuel

as an industrial

petrochemical

carbon
1.

source

gas

four

production

electric

4 shows

single

4,

as an industrial

included.

of

Figure

generation

Figure
are,
as

hydraulic

from

5.
in

The
part,

industrial
power

and

 FIGURE 5

CO2 EMISSIO.NS BY SECTOR AND REGION
1988
60--~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~---

50
n::

~

~ 40
(/)

w
z
2

0

30

~

z
o 20
_J
_J

I

L""'- Y

L"'- Y",(l

'xl(

V /l

I"'- "CY:*"

1

rX')I

2

10

o

fl.

>.I><,..

.< >I'

. , •

ATLANTIC

I)

,

PM '1

,

QUEBEC

• , •;v "" , "

>

,

ONTARIO

D£

''I

,

MANITOBA

•

fX"', ), e:
SASK.

.,. "I~---'

ALBERTA

r---------- ..------------------------------------------------------

: ~ INDUSfRIAL ~ TRANSPORTATION
C02PROI.ORW

ESJPOWER GENER'N

8.C.

~ RESIDENT'L/COMM'L

'

 /

Emissions
large

]

by

industrial

Alberta

and

the

petrochemical

and gas

as both

and

relatively

use

paper

quantify

and

material

would

Fossil

fuels

]

Columbia
do not

The

J

have

carbon

used

emitters

these

sectors

relatively

and

is
true

in
in

also

do

to

the

such

-

a
17 -

the

the

pulp

not

been

difficult

not

burned,

to
this

population

and

not

vary

factors

significantly
are

generate

considered.

essentially

all

and some of the
Manitoba
power

and British
and,

significant

hence,

relatively
fuel

small

consumed

electricity.
as

power

source.

are

hydraulically-generated
plays

by

is

as much of the
of

and

with

from this

form

on

from

sectors

dioxide

reliance

emissions

on hydraulic

emissions

in

dioxide

Quebec,

jurisdictions

low-cost,
Climate

region.

commercial

of carbon

were

and Alberta

exclusively

dioxide

it

in these

are

Atlantic

almost

residential

available.

coal)

by industry

have

it

oil
of

waste,

closely

and

when differences

and the

direct

where

correlate

in Saskatchewan

rely

if

Carbon

(GDP)

(largely

particularly

J

that

of

hydraulically

since

in

consumers

the

emissions

biomass

naturally.)

·product

by

a

and

refining

major

sawmill

dioxide

of

sector

electricity

reduced

generated

assumed

degrade

regions

in Ontario

J

is

are

is

gas,

Emissions

including

burning

it

are

( Carbon

the

domestic

between

the

biomass,

transportation

gross

]

to

industry

there

natural
and

and feedstock.

industry.

attributed

by

where

transportation

electricity

of

Ontario

mostly

Columbia

low-cost

extensive

]

fuel

British

in

fuelled

production,

oil

the

base

highest

the

gas,

and

are

where

and

Quebec

J

industry

This

Quebec

and

in

is

Manitoba

electricity
role

in

is
overall

 FIGURE 6

CO2 EMISSIONS ON A PER CAPITA BASIS
1988
30--~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~--

25 ·

6 20
(/)

n:::
w
Q_

"'15
(/)
w
z
z

',

~ 10

1

5

'l'1
' "''-"V"'-"

0

1

CY)dVYJ

1

~

IX.X)(X]

CXXXXl O OO() <J

KXXX>(.

~

-~m
D ~~,~v-~o
~o~'tlJ>..i
s'tlsos~ :if>..?
J>..~
tW'~cs c\\'~

-~\s~V-"'~

D .s-"'·cr,.~"'D .s

IXXXX J

·l

1

;
,~0,1>-

 /

energy

consumption

emissions.

This

Alberta

that

relatively

These

]

well

be

address

the

issue

of

energy,
for

]

that

in

a

carbon

on

in
as

carbon

dioxide

Saskatchewan

fossil

fuels

dioxide

the

and

and

have

. of

unit
is

at

efficiencies.

6

more

most

policy

to

readily

The reality

and

7

carbon

major

interpreted
hand

interregional

developing

Figures

GDP than

we have

across

to

emissions.

.relatively

sometimes

of

in

perspective,

per

generation

principle

challenge
dioxide

produces

implying

of

major

average,

This

energy

such

carbon

maintenance

international

economies.

hence,

provinces

heavily

differences

may

or

and,

winters.

equity

capita

in

more

mean

on

sectors

evident

Canada

an

these

rely

severe

Canada,

]

is

regional

From

]

in

that

dioxide

per

western
mean

more

developed

Canadians

accessible
is

show

waste

opportunities

complex.

ENERGY USE IN CANADA

}
The

J

economy

production

of
of

commodities
industrial

paper,

iron

metals
use.
and

The
the

we have

energy

which

their

to

Canada,

are

a significant

intensive,
then

processes.
and

steel,

account

for

in

Five

of

mining,

concentration

of

these

75% of
these

higher

level

made the

use

the

of

other

-

of

of
energy

country's
18 -

on

export

to

support

-and

pulp

and

non-ferrous

industrial

industries

the

traded

industries

Canadian

types

based

countries

petrochemicals

corresponding
best

is

internationally

used

about

extent,

energy
in

Canada,

use,

demonstrate

how

natural

advantages

and

 /

o._
Cl

c.,

LL.

0
~

(/)

::,

z
0

__J
__J

-

~
~

w

CL

"'
i::

['

0,...

~

...

~

t-

I'.:

~

D

C,
H

r:.i

(/)

w

z
z

<X)

co

°'
T""'""'9

0

J-

(/)

z
0

(/)

c.n

-2

w
N

0
()

0
0
0 ...
0
~

0
0
0

«,

00

0
0
0 ...
lO

0
0
0 ...

v

$Sn NOl11H~/S3NN0l

0
0
0 ...
N

0

 /

resource

base.

consumption

against

actually

J

Conventional

the

Canadian

Canadians,

consumer,

interdependence,

energy

of

purchases

in

but

every

course,

the

charges

international

sense

works

from other

accounting

of

in

the

buyer

word.

reverse

this

in

The

is
same

relation

to

sellers.

I
These

industries

are

export

by international

market

]

as

Typically,

]

have

J

possible.

international
limited

the

absence

to

reduce

(e.g.

1.

-,

or

carbon

pass

in

on cost

for

the

plant

closing

dioxide

would

However,

commodity

in

is

question,

will

not

therefore,

policy

industries

could
turn,

and

reduce
could

lead

to

carbon

change

the

production

their

reduce
not

if

In

measures

these

does

over

consumers.

certainly

this

increased

emissions

to

standards)

which

and,

from

in

driven

influence

Canadian

This,

are

and competitive

increases

accord,

energy-use

here.

they

products

emissions

Canada,

means

little

their

competitiveness.

emissions

Canadian

have

for

dioxid~

taxes

closures

demand

they

to

. carbon

which

to be as efficient

of an international

international

dioxide

forces

prices

ability

special

plant

l

market

oriented,

world

result

elsewhere,

of

a

global

be diminished.

J
Canadian

industry

improving

energy

Energy
1973

has

28%.

This

cross-section
continue

has

organization,

work

for

been

the

industry
1990's
- 19 -

actively

Industrial

example,

improved
with

Canadian
in

years

The Canadian

(CIPEC),

industry

of
its

several

efficiency.

Conservation
Canadian

for

efficiency

membership
·,

would
with

Program

estimates

energy

from
be

a

focusing

that

on
for
since

by

about

a

broad

well

suited

to

renewed

focus

on

 environmental
dioxide

improvements

emissions.

possible

as

industry,

Further

well,

with

personnel,

and

itself

ready

and

forces

made up of
from

be an efficient

is

_emphasis
in energy

and assistance

to

industry

particular

improvements

task

support

appear

Canadian

with

not

a

able

to

adopt

of
new

carbon

efficiency

are

members

appropriate

way to

"waster"

key

on

of

government

hasten

this

energy

process.

and

economic

each

has

shown

processes

and

technology.

Our

high

standard

the

world

in

basis)

--

carbon

dioxide

to

Our cold

colder,

l

Canada
This

economy.

However,

For

as

those

they

are

average

and

eliminating

pulp

and

emissions

of

paper
would

the
and

U.S.A.,
energy

-U.K.,

be reduced

carbon

the

energy

are

about

France

or

climate

is

Canadians

dioxide

bringing

the

West

Germany,

metals
almost
20

expected

tend

to

distances.

consumed

-

capita

the

houses

and

and

non-ferrous

Canadian

larger

consumption

the

to

somewhat

greater

the

contribute

Similarly,

per

energy.

Germany,

drive

two factors

including

in

parity

be

U.S.,

to

just

can

the

own more vehicles

for

Canadians

example,

energy.

energy

power
high

also

in

highest

relatively

good,

more

Canadian

has

geography

second

(purchasing

means

use

adjusted

I

reason

the

capita

they

If

I

GDP per

and vast

efficient

so

currently

of any particular

of our

Ita1y< 4 ).

--

emissions.

climate

energy

living
of

another

more

intensity
as

terms

is

consume

of

in
--

Canadian

Canadian
from

were

climate

France

manufactured

15 percent
-

emissions

and

to
Italy

exports
carbon
those

of

dioxide
shown

in

 FIGURE 8

CO2 EMISSIONS
AS COM:PARED TO AMOUNTS OF ENERGY CONSUMED
0

100

w
2

::)
(J)

z

a
0

>-

so

I

.

74
l'C1""->C.<J<'

0

~

w

f5

60

LL

0

~

J

-a

~

40

',

""
N

0
0

?.:) 20
(I)

w
z
z
0

rU.K.

W.GERMANY JAPAN

U.S.A.

FRANCE

CANADA

 /

Figure

7 to

a level

GDP.

Even after

the

substantial

these

Canadian

energy

that

most
and

Figure
of

in the

al though
economy

other

is

the

nations

including

the

France.

Canada

relatively

ranks
greater

mix.

Canada's

therefore,

could

industrial

nations.

Analysis

of

emissions

world
and

in

have

contained

form

of

finished

unit

do not

imported

of

reflect
by

energy

be

Canada

been

of

some

intensive

limited

alternatives

developed
the

following

consider
of
by

Imperial

outlook
discussion.

-

21 -

on

U.S.A.

carbon

the

dioxide

in our

other

dioxide
and

Canada

affiliated

of

emissions,

carbon

in

and

because

of

sources

demand

unit

industrial

dioxide

reduce

and

energy.

power

those

market

per

largely

carbon

current

energy

than

of

of

and nuclear

to

based

of

Japan,

group

than

the

emissions

Germany,

reduce

that

result

a number

of hydraulic

more

fuel

a

dioxide

of this

to

is

sources

in

West

options

should

fossil
as

carbon

lowest

role

projections

underlie
in the

nations

U.K.,
the

fact

less

consumption

potential

Future

these

energy

data

well-endowed

ratio

energy

trends.

of

relatively

country's

primary

energy

emissions

on a per

under-appreciated

industrial

the

8 compares

total

the

Germany

goods.

important,

forces

of West

adjustments,

countries

manufactured

of

those

quantities

industrialized

Another

below

future
and

the

companies
emissions

 FIGURE 9

CO2 GROWTH BY SECTOR AND FUEL SOURCE
CANADA - 1988 VS 2005
et:

~

120

~
(/)
100
w
z

95

z
0

f-

80

z
0

_J
_J

60

L

z

40

(f)

5

20

(f)

en

~

0

N

oo (20)----------------------------------------INDUSTRIAL TRANSPORTATION
POWERGENER'N

RESIDENTIAL

r------------------~----- .-------------------------------:•

GAS ~ OIL []

OIL -

COMMERCIAL

NON ENERGY ~ COAL

-

 /

Figure

shows

9

emissions
years

by

the
fuel

to

1988

projected

growth

in

Canadian

and

sector

of

the

Increases

are

source

2005.

carbon

economy

expected

in

dioxide

during

most

the

consuming

sectors.

Higher
coal

emissions

are

power

a growing

to

coal

to

meet

oil-based
source

of

sector

industrial

growth

in

greater

sector
demand

and
for

represents

carbon

emissions

(Figure

dioxide

modest

as

efficiency

use
to

of

gas

greater

use

electricity.
the
4),

of

While

largest

single

increases

improvements

and

in

help

to

this

offset

growth.

would

in

be

electricity)

energy

outlook

to

achieve,

changes

in

rmperial

. use

dollar

already

predicts

7% less
output,

mix

(to · hydraulic

included
to

and

in

current

improvements
that

by

2005

will

aut9mobile

efficient.

- 22 -

projected

many

efficiency

and

the

projected

in

technolcgy.

residential

fleet

base
price
For

energy

buildings

consume

nuclear-

Imperial

and

commercial

industry
the

those

because

efficient,

energy,

from

partly

fuel

expected

10% more

of

emissions

response

and

become

, to

are

relationships

average

dioxide

and

based

example,

carbon

difficult

improvements

-per

to

currently

A reduction

will

related

transportation

are

demand

the

largely

will

7% less

will

be

use
on

energy
20% more

 /

Further

improvements

in

changes

incentives,

economic
government

mandating,

further

switching

sector

offers

global

companies

greenhouse

gas

and diesel

as

the

emissions

production
given

of

and

to

losses

in the

atmosphere,
carbon

compressed

natural

largely

of

each

alternative

oil-based

fuels,

could

potential

warming

in

effect

the

tr~nsportation

gas

fact
in the

over

any

Imperial

and

of

fuel

the

gasoline
fuels
liquified
considered

full

cycle

of

consideration

is

manufacturing
heat-trapping

appear

energy

contribute

and

analyses

Once

which

of

alternative

the

greater

fuels

reducing

to

(CNG)

The

Also,

analyses

These

fuel.

its

unit

in

alternatives

for

with

per

in

some

gases

requirements

dioxide

three.

out

propane.

greenhouse

of methane,

all

example,

various

or

of

For

carried

vehicles.

energy

possible

less

trend.

consumption

the

fuels

motor

(LPG),

additional
barriers

possibilities

from

for

require

institutional

fossil

emissions

gas

in

limited

fuels

would

combination

have

methanol,

petroleum

a

warming

affiliated

included

or
between

likely

potential

efficiency

to

than

and
effect

produce

much

conventional

as much or more

to

any

atmosphere.

THE CANADIAN CHALLENGE

To

illustrate

the

dimension

developed

one

stabilize

Canadian

carbon

combustion

at

1988

not
costs

studied
and

possible

their
the

benefits

of

the

scenario
dioxide
levels

desirability,
of

this

of

challenge,

what

scenario;
23

be

-

from

year

feasibility

-

might

emissions

by the

2005.
or

nor

Imperial

the

is . it

necessary
fossil
Imperial
full

range

suggesting

has
to
fuel
has
of
that

 F IGURE 1 0

CANADIAN CO2 · EMISSIONS CHALLENGE
800 1 -·
a:::
L
<{

-~

J

-

-

-

--~---

·

-

· · · ---~

..

~--

-

-

· -

---

·-

· -

·-

· -

-

-

· ·-

· -

-

~ -

~

-

---

~

·

;

w

,,

s

659

t

w

i

~ 600 ~
Q
._

t
r

z
0
-_J
_J

iI

~;

~ 400

z
(/)

5

536

529

!

i

t--

r1
t

~

N

l
~

0
0

I:

I:

aI

t
I
l
l
I

I

I

II

:t

:

'

iI
I
l

I
i&
I

1988

2005

t

:

2005

r--- ·--· - -~·- · ·-- ·-- ·- ·~·---·-·i • GAS EaTRANSPORT'N-OIL

D

.;- ·-·--·OTHER-OIL

j
l

-1

II
.

I

,. :

~

..___J

l.
i

2005

TORONTOCONFERENCE

AGGRESSIV
E
CASE

.

•

.

I

:
I
I

•

lI

!

)

,___

!

t

I
i
I

I
I

!

1·

'

I

0 L..

l

iI

r

g

t·

I

:

~ 200 ~
~
I
i
;..

i

I
t
I
Ii

j..

2w

423

(20% REDUCTIONVS 1988)

·-

-·-·
r2JCOAL

'

 /

such

steps

be

tremendous
·carbon

difficulty
dioxide

following
outlook

in

powered

to

or

increase

generation

facilities.

projected

would

in
would

may

may not

capital

outlays

be
of

and

energy
about

a

levels

in

incorporated
To

in

achieve

15 years

thermal

70% of
to

this

lead

time

or

-

in

hydraulic
this

to
outlook.

necessary.
would

is

2005
power

magnitude,

of environmental

$50 billion

24

operation

equivalent

case

use

electricity

addition

base

well.

of

the
in

appropriate

in

and/or

program

own set

coal

coal-fired

be

power

2005,

-

today's

up to

adding

about

fleet

and

turnover.

expected

its

sized

implies

gains

require

Imperial

bring

from

industrial

by

be

This

outlook.

gas

will

Italy.

energy

require

the

energy
labelled

automobile

the

nuclear

plants

The

current

2005

double

An all-nuclear

program
or

in

could

facilities
by

Canadian

scenario,

efficiency

case

natural

replaced

Darlington

today

existing
to

Imperial's

in

and automobile

all

the

combustion.

stabilization

than

incremental

example,

to

is

reduce

fuel

same average

in

base

indicates

10:

exists

Imperial's

are

made

the

more

retooling

fossil

automobiles

improvement

converted

significantly

this

deliver
as

Canada,

l
I

to

in Figure

Canadian

Assume

cost
. from

developing

efficiency

•

analysis

were

Assume

for

the

emissions

Case",

50%

What
and

adjustments

"Aggressive

•

taken.

of
the

for
four
plant

Such
issues

a
and

Additional
be required,

as

 /

I

U)

iw
i t-z
i :J0
I

~

I

L{)

0

0
N

(/)

H

~

0

0

I

-

w

:~
l -

I
I

I
I

I

r-1

~

I

l z
I 0z

~

0

0

i: w0

(/)
(/)

Ct::

I

I

lI

0

ii:)

I

!

z

,...,

I

: <(

N

0

10

LL

I

: <(

!'O·z<{

u
0

i•

·· I

z-

i (J)w
0:::
i f-i ::)z
i 00
I

c.,

I

Ck::

0

I

I
I

I0
' 0
i w
I

I

0
0
0

..

L()

t'1

0
0
0

..
0
l"'1

0
0
0

..
L()
N

0
0
0 ...

0
N

c!\(3A/S3NN01 NOllll~

0
0

..
L()

0

0
0

0 ...
0

0
0
0 ...

LO

NI SNOISS1Vf3l08

0

i0

i~
___
._

 /

To

put

this

already

perspective,

Figure

reduction

from

conference

difficult

10 also

1988

on the

levels

changing

and

costly

illustrates

the

recommended

by the

scenario

target

into

level

June

of a 20%

1988

Toronto

atmosphere.

CANADA IN PERSPECTIVE

The

foregoing

illustrates

face

if

it

were

rate

of

carbon

to

the

formidable

endeavour

dioxide

to

appreciably

emissions

from

likely

take

significant

changes

in

beyond

those

reasonably

expect~d

to

would

likely

of

economic

forces

intervention

in the

Let's

that

in

assume
lifestyle

radical

issue

dioxide

in

future.

production

energy

growth

It

consumption

very

would

patterns

by the

require

workings

significant

in Canada.

to

accept

th~

costs,

dislocation

consumption.

Regrettably,

no.

changes
caused

Would

the

The fact

is

international

negligible

the

fuels.

be motivated

would

action,

by

·global
that

in

Canadian

impact

on

reducing

about

2%

of

global

emissions.

currently

generation

have

energy

economic

coordinated

would

Canada

the

on

of

agr~ed

Canada

reduce

fossil

marketplace

significant

be resolved?

initiatives

shown

Canadians

and

absence

carbon

economic

constraints

warming
the

and

challenge

of

contributes
carbon

Figure
This
from

11,

dioxide
and this

base
fossil

only
from
is

fossil

expected

fuel
to

projection

has

world

fuel

combustion

growing

world

combustion,

remain

case

- 25 -

total

unchanged
carbon

from

25

dioxide
billion

as
in

 :r:

.....

~
0

0:::

c.,
()

-~
0

z
0

(_)

w

0:::

0

LO

LL. 0

<(

0

0

.w N _

<(

z
<(
u

(/)

::> I
_J

<X)

:::>

co

·w

LL

(J

..
LI
:;

~

(

:;
,-(I}

-

_J

w

(/)
(/)

a::

~

0

w
I

z
0
z

()

~

~
J.

L
(

'

L

'

-

~

(

<(

w

;

(

z

_J

.A
C

)

0

w

LI

(.)
(.)

0

'~

c

Cl

z

Li

:J

0

LL.

(
(.

OJ

0

•

lO

0

•

"q"'

0

•

0

N

0

e

HlMOcJQdN~/HlMOt!~ ZOJ ..:10011\ftl

 /

tonnes

in

1988

tonnes

by 2005.

As shown
are

in

the

period.

industries,

as

the

as

developing
source

extent

a

dioxide

the

countries.
to

First,
rates

major

remain

production

over

the

of

on

economic

energy

intensive

development

and

countries

tend

more heavily

do the

rates

shift

developed

in the

toward

rely

less

heavy

industry.
on coal

countries.

developed

The

economies

energy

growth

economies.

resource

to

the

developing

developed

based

In

contribute

emissions

this.

billion

32

dioxide

projected

greater

than

than

growth

are

for

have

economies

dioxide

some

to

reach

developing

carbon

reasons

increase

an energy

carbon

of

to

of carbon

countries

three

such

rates

year

non-OECD, . mainly

projected

their

1. 5% per

growth

growth

are

population

Third,

the

total

are

Second,

11,

of

developing

There

countries
and

in

terms,

78% of

a rate

Figure

greatest

absolute

at

lower

reflect

intensive

to

service

industries.

The

relationship

growth

between

and economic

growth,

2005 period,

is

the

dependence

relative

growth.

The

increases

in

forms,

as

a

shown

in

prerequisite

carbon

expressed

as

Figure

12.

on fossil

developing
energy,

expected

and

nations

use
will

particularly
for

realizing

potential.

-

26

a ratio

This

fuel

-

dioxide

production

for

the

ratio

is

in

achieving

a measure

require
in

of

economic
significant

carbon-based
their

1988 to

full

energy
economic

 /

The challenge
they

are

is

to

standards

achieve

to

will

limited

and

costly

has

of

global

and

require

labour.

if

and

their

costs.

countries

their

the

disadvantage.

As a first

priority,
should

understanding
benefits

to

of

greenhouse
solid
address

to

gases

foundation
this

acts

operations

to
and

effort,

Canada

are
measures

on

in

-

capital,

time

and

the

absence
·

if

will

be

industries
reduce

competing

at

believes

a

distinct

that

Canada's

increasing
and

the

of actions

of carbon
will

and
issue.

the

costs
that

dioxide
help

an

well

in

be

of

to

consumers

development

-

may

countries

environmental

27

be

impact

This

policy

serious

likely

actions

economy

atmosphere.

potential

will

significantly

buildup

public

of

consequences

the

the

steps

Imperial

reduce

potentially

industrialized

opp6rtunities

other

producers

world

for

if

living

efficiency

these

its

scientific

the

raise

mitigating

alone

and to the

in

to

advanced,

investments

focused

the

Canada

be contemplated

Some of

therefore,
be

in

global

same

competitive

efforts

play

negligible

Unless

make

to

accord,

have

countries

of capital.

Canada

ineffective

more

energy

significant

international

redirect

to

required

implementing

a part

enforceable

simply

growth

developing

economic

warming.

However,

for

intensive

by lack

Canada

impacts

economic

energy

be constrained

Clearly,

greater

comparable

· Less
more

even

the

levels

countries.
likely

perhaps

and
might

and other
to

build

planning

a
to

 /

Government

and

research
could

industry

and
reduce

impacts

should

development

of

greenhouse

of

also

gas

increased

place

priority

cost-effective
emissions

up

technologies

or

concentrations

on stepping

of

mitigate

·that

the

greenhouse

potential

gases

in

the

atmosphere.

KEY OBSERVATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS

•

The possibility
serious

of

issue

scientific
commitment
global
will

science

be

and

uncertainties

responding

positively

no

guarantee

appropriate
placed

guide

Canada

contributes

only

carbon

dioxide

no

is
one

to

country

makes

This

countries,

rather

than

the

esiential

the
.

potential

responses.

a relatively
from

a

means

unchanged

in

dominant

many

solutions
priority

areas

2% share

of

of

combustion,
the

this

Further,

contribution

to
actions
by

these
among

individual
...

countries,

is

route

-

28

-

to

a constructive

the

global

and

future.

actions

A

potential

high

cooperative

unilateral

of

particular

small
fuel

that

issue

deficient

fossil

potentially

remain.

Therefore,

the

remain

emissions.

that

and

however,

the

improving

emissions

expected

to

effect.

on

better

share

to

a complex

contradictions

is

the

is

community;

the

to

warming
world

warming

needs

•

for

to

have

global

outcome.

 /

•

In

addition,

expected

g·rowth
to

be

industrialize
growth

economies.

•

to reduce

global

challenge.

In

is

Canada's

whereby

industries

countries

which

market

energy

efficiency,

emissions
difficult

intensive

simply

will

fossil
and

· as

well-endowed
less

a

fuel

cold

climate
of

sources

of

fossil

fuel

market

energy,

nations.

-

act

unilaterally.

29

-

likely

at

the

their

damage

best,

potential

achieve
for

global

possibility

would

be

that

ineffective,

operations

to

those

action.

further

improvements

reduce
in

and

carbon

Canada

because

of

most

would

likely
energy

distances.

and

the

energy
other

in

dioxide

Canada's

long

forces

than

~ny potential

of

Canada's

based

of

not

appreciably

partly

industrial

international

is

to

of

an

the

combustion

costly,

mature

they

aspirations

constructive

lead
to

result

rates

and,

redirect

taking

steps

greater

would

acti9n

Canadian

not

as

is

action

importance

are

emissions.

should

such

greater

economy,

addition,

already

Canada

in mitigating

forces

from

dioxide

competitiveness

are

While

complexity

therefore,

because

Of even
unilateral

the

to

warming,

only

costly

economic

emissions

countries

more

the

global . carbon

improvement

warming.

be

adds

international

negligible

•

developing

relatively

response,

not

dioxide

significantly

the

countries

Potential

This

achieve

than

carbon

in

Accommodating

developing
accords

of

greatest

and

economic

rates

country
economy
industrial

In
1

s

is

 /

•

Imperial

has

carbon
an

dioxide

the

steps

may or

They

would,

gains

in

intervention

event,

for

could

the

to

of

four

new

a 50% improvement

in

would

be required,

the

period.
or

require

very

marketplace

in

consumers,

jeopardize

replace
expected

equivalent

appropriate

Canadian

as

This

facilities

over

be

by 2005

$50 billion

forecasts
to

stabilize

challenge.

efficiency

economic

costs

the

addition,

energy

prove

the

substantial

isolation,

In

any

into

about

with

Imperial

may not

of

to

levels

1988

generation

2005

fleet

at

size
of

plants.

automobile

or double

very

in

nuclear

average

the

electricity

in _operation

Darlington

of

scenario

Canada

an expenditure

coal-fired

be

possible

in

only,

re~Jire

70% of

one

emissions

illustration,

could

to

examined

such

necessary.
significant
carry

Canada,
and,

Canada's

if

done

in

international

competitiveness.

•

Canada's

first

priority

a significantly
economic
reduce

should

improved

consequences
the

Priority
development

also

of the

reduce

greenhouse

impacts

of

of

increased

be

foster

understanding

of actions

buildup

should

be to

that

greenhouse
placed
cost-effective

gas

emissions

scientific

in

the
up

-

~ and

mitigate

to

atmosphere.
research

technologies

of greenhouse

atmosphere.

of

be contemplated

stepping

or

concentrations

30

gases

development

the

might

on

most

-

of

the

that
the

and
could

potential

gases

in the

 COMMITMENTS
. AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Imperial

makes

address

both

process

to

Canada

that

the

following

the

issue

develop

of

a

is

commitments
potential

new

and

recommendations

global

environmental

warming

policy

credible

and

view

that

the

possibility

issue

and

is

and

framework

workable,

nationally

to
the
for
and

internationally.

IMPERIAL OIL

Imperial
is

shares

the

a potentially

the

serious

implications

Imperial

•

for

Imperial

and for

committed
Canada.

of

global

to

warming

understanding

More specifically,

will:

develop
in

an

its

costs

inventory

operations
to

m determine
additional
operations,

reduce

of
and

these

the
energy
with

greenhouse

identify

gases

feasible

that

are

emitted

opportunities

and

potential

for

emissions;

technical

and

efficiency
an

eye

emissions;

-

31 -

economic

opportunities
to

reducing

in

all

carbon

of

its

dioxide

 /

11

determine,

· in

community,

dialogue

how

its

facilities

and

to

potential

address

will

be

with
extensive

external

energy

governments
research

research
global

usage,

and

scientific

capabil

programs

warming.

considering

the

can

The
both

·ities
be

utilized

primary
input

and

context

and

output

for

carbon

implications;

a

determine

the

dioxide
from

u

the

technical

sinks,

"

or

and

mechanisms

atmosphere,

such

oil-bearing

reservoirs

operations,

or

economic

into

to

as

to

potential
remove

carbon

underground

dioxide

injection

into

support

enhanced

oil

recovery

saline

aquifers

for

disposal

deep

purposes;

•

develop

"life

emissions

for

various

•

carry

out

assess
being

fuels

a comprehensive
potential

transportation

•

fossil

of

and

gr~enhouse

their

gas

alternatives

in

end-uses;

economic

range

assessments

cycle"

for
sector,

of environmental

the

fuel

such

of

switching

including

the

with

technical
emphasis

an assessment

of

and
on the

the

full

consequences;

macro-economic

contemplated

emissions,

assessment

consequences

by governments
as carbon

or

- 32 -

fuel

to

to

Canada

reduce

taxes.

of options

carbon

dioxide

 /

Imperial
work,

expects
as they

to

be in

become

a position

available,

to

share

beginning

the

in mid

results

of

this

1990.

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT

leading

In

environmental
may wish

•

to

overall

the
policy

a broad

levels

groups,
new

framework

for

developing

Canada,

the

the

federal

new

government

consider:

Spearheading
three

of

.process

of

academia

consultative
government,

and

environmental

process

should

the

larger

that

face

process

the

in

industry,

general

policy

public

framework

1990

among the

public
to

help

for

interest
create

Canada.

the
This

address:

context
the

of

the

nation,

envi~onmental

including

challenges

potential

global

warming;

the

state

challenges

of
and

international,
key

the

science

dynamics

of

national

environmental

associated
its

and

with

the

dimensions

to

evolution;

regional

issues;

I

i

-

33 -

I
I

i

 /

potential

initiatives

economic

costs

nationally

and regionally;

the

mechanisms

time

frames;

the

strategies

occur

•

despite

Facilitating

the

to

adapt

to

leading
market-oriented

climate

for

of

and

the

appropriate

change

which

to mitigate

understanding

the

may

effects.

by:

the

evolving

science
issues

and

the

such

as

warming;

awareness

rational

cost

and

consensus-building

public

developing

to

social
internationally~

change

efforts

particularly

increasing

actions

foster

global

associated

benefits,

to

our

the

potential

support

and

national

furthering
risks,

and

to

enable

Canadians

to

choices;

and benefit

address

the

environmental

international

to

meet

challengeso

-

34

for

-

that
global

potential

challenges;

dialogues

mechanisms

multilaterally

assessments

develop

to
could

be

applied

environmental

 /

•

Establishing

a

dialogue

sector-by-sector
the

with

analysis

environmental

industry

and

of · opportunities

challenges,

in

stimulating
to

a

respond

to

partnership

with

to:

government,

develop

a broader,

more

cost

effective

set

of

ideas

and options;

enhance

Canada's

demonstrating

the

effectiveness

internationally

by

broadly

approach

is

based

Canada

taking.

A framework

similar

improvements

in

achieving

these

to that
energy

employed

efficiency

goals.

-

35

-

by CIPEC to
might

be

facilitate
helpful

in

 /

REFERENCES

1.

NASA/Goddard
Institute
of
Space
Studies,
New
York;
Geophysical
Fluid
Dynamics
Laboratory,
Princeton
University,
New Jersey;
Oregon State
University;
and the National
Centre
for Atmospheric
Research,
Bolder
Colorado.

2.

Ramanathan,
V., "The Greenhouse
Theory of
Test by An Inadvertent
Global
Experiment",
Number 7, p.93,
1988.

3.

Houghton,
Change",
1989.

4.

International
Efficiency,
California.

Richard
Scientific

A. and Woodwell,
George
American,
Vol.
260,

Comparison
of
Lawrence
Berkeley

- 36

Residential
Laboratory,

Climate
Science,

A
Change:
Vol. 240,

M., . "Global
Number 4,

Climate
p. 36-44,

Energy
Use
University

and
of