3 STATE of the CLIMATE REPORT Essays on Global Climate Change TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword: A Year of Climatic Hyperventilation 3 By Patrick I. Michaels, The Year in Review: Temperatures Unusual, Business as Usual 4 By Patrick Michaels, The ABCs of C02: Carbon Dioxide?s Many Benefits 8 By Craig D. Idso, Temperatures from Space: 1998 Bears the Mark of El Ni?o 14 By Roy W. Spencer, Going to Extremes: Coverage of 1998?s ot-So-Unusual Weather 1 8 By Robert E. Davis, A Man Ahead of His Time 24 An Interview with Climate Change Pioneer Reid A. Bryson, Why Higher Temperatures Are Better for People 28 By Thomas Gale Moore. STAFF Patrick J. Michaels Chief Editor Paul C. Knappenberger Technical Supervisor Amy K. Lemley Managing Editor The State of the Climate Report is an annual research review published by New Hope Environmental Services Inc. which is solely responsible for its content. Opinions expressed in this publication are not necessarily those of New Hope Environmental Services Inc. Funding for the 1999 State of the Climate Report is provided by Greening Earth Society. 19 99 Foreword A YEAR 0f CLIMATIC HYPERVENTILATION BY PATRICK J. MICHAELS, PH.D. As El Ni?o?s heat escaped out to space, creating an 1 9 9 8 chistorical spike in all three of our temperature records, so did the heat emanate from the climate doom?and-gloom machine. It seemed every weather anomaly was related to El Ni?o, and every El Ni?o to global warming. Fires in Florida? Tornadoes near Disney World? Rainy night in Georgia? Low cotton? Each of these events, breathlessly reported on television, was blamed on climate change. The landmark vignette for 1998 may have been in midsummer, when a major network aired footage ostensibly showing a corn disaster in Texas. The stalks were brown, as is common at harvest time. A combine, or harvesting machine, stirred the dust into a frenzy. Nice footage. If only everyone had just taken a deep breath and calmed down, they would have noticed the large, plump appendages hanging upside-down from the stalks?big ears of corn, about to be plucked, even as the voiceover rambled on about disaster. Helping the world to catch its breath and take a closer look at climate change is what this year?s State of the Climate Report is all about. University of Virginia?s Robert Davis shows us that the warmer it is, the less the weather varies. Craig Idso, president of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, gives us an A-to-Z list of some of the benefits of increased C02. Stanford?s Thomas Gale Moore may put a smile on your face as he reminds us that people live longer when it?s warm, and they seem happier. As for the temperature observations, they speak for themselves, with the help of NASA satellite expert Roy Spencer. And we gain some perspective in an interview with Reid Bryson, the University of Wisconsin professor who, 30 years ago, pioneered the research demon? strating that climate can and will change in ways that affect or not humans do anything to the atmosphere. As Bryson says, the only thing that is consistent about climate is change. Patrick I. Michaels isapn?saagf sciences at the [Inioersity of me_ Dr. Michaela is also a senior ji'llow at the Cato institute and ii visiting sriuntist i?m?mwf. hisiitute, both i ii Wash h-igton, DC. He is the mMm?mwmw 251?) scientific and powder m?th?h's on rihimh? chart-gr and its hi1; Incl hit the cro- mini is rhief of W?rld Climate Report, a i riwcr'iciy ?crush-tim- cii'ci'i hih?i'hai'immiiy rnosiihfhicnihd publications in the iit?iuiir'. Nature magazine, Dr. Michael?s is one songhi -h}'ii'r speakers ihi'Siihicti of 03 STATE OF THE CLIMATE REPORT 1999 O4 TEMPERATURES UNUSUAL BUSINESS as USUAL HOT YEAR TESTS GREENHOUSE FEARS BY PATRICK J. hat a wonderful year! Global temperatures reached their highest value recorded in all three available records?surface, satellite, and weather balloon. Sayers of doom had pronounced dire and immediate consequences?so for once it was possible to check their models of misery against what actually happened when it really got warm. The result? The greenness of the cover of this State of the Climate Report is a big hint. EL NINO vs. GREENHOUSE WARMING Judging from the con?ation of El Ni?o and human-induced global warming, you might think the two were one and the same, or maybe even, as Vice President Al Gore intimated, that one caused the other. Like many of his reaches, there was a bit of truth in the stretch, but only a bit. Global warm- ing didn?t cause El Ni?o in any appreciable sense, but the two were related: It was a very good El Nifto year, and it was a very, very warm year. El iflO is natural. Just because scientists dis- cover something, or because we, as taxpayers, shell out tens of millions of dollars to research something, does not mean that something new has happened. Chemicals existed before chemists, DNA existed before its discovery won a Nobel Prize, and El Ni?o ebbed and ?owed long before the first Climatologist was born. E1 Ni?o is a commonly occurring slowing (or even reversal) of the northeasterly and southeasterly trade winds that dominate the tropical Pacific Ocean (Figure 1). When the trades are blowing, they move vast amounts of oceanic water northwestward and then west? ward from the coast of South America. In doing so they drag the warm water off the surface, STATE OF THE CLIMATE REPORT 1999 MICHAELS, PH.D. and much colder water ?upwells? in replace? ment. So the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is relatively cool for a tropical ocean. 0 one knows why the trades suddenly slow or even reverse, piling warm water up against South America. Reid Bryson, the modern founder of the very true notion that climate does change in ways that are important to peo- ple, believes this reversal is mainly an effect of some other large-scale physical ?uctuation. During an El i?o, a large portion of the tropi- eal Pacific is much warmer than average?as much as this heat event- ually disperses through the atmosphere. Heat is energy. and an E1 Ni?o shows up both as warming and as motion. Its reach extends into the tropical Atlantic, where it suppresses?yes, suppresses?hurricanes. Rain, often absent for years, falls in the ultradeserts of Peru and Argentina. And the global tempera? ture warms. When the trade winds return, the cold upwelling reappears. This is La Nina. It stands to reason that the more the cold water is suppressed, the greater the amount that eventually bubbles up, so a big El Ni?o warm spike may mean a big temperature tall in the months thereafter. As our daily satellite data show {Figure 2), the lower atmospheric temperature peaked around April. and was in rapid decline through the rest of the year. As of this writing (mid?March H199) it continues to head south faster than an Internet stock with a bad earnings report. We?re totally confident that 1998?s hig warming Spike was a result of El Ni?o. and not dieadeel "global is, a human product. We know because the stratosphere tells us so. The human version of global warming is caused by increasing amounts of ?greenhouse? gases in the lower atmosphere. These com- pounds absorb the heating radiation that results from the sun's warming of the earth?s surface, and re-emit that radiation either downward, resulting in additional atmospheric warming, or out to space. If these compounds weren?t there, the radiation would pass directly outward. Increasing the greenhouse effect, then, warms the lower atmosphere but, by Virtue of the ?recycling? of warming radiation in the lower atmosphere, cools the stratosphere that lies above. The heat from El Ni?o, on the other hand, burbles up through it all. So what we should see from the increasing greenhouse effect is a lowering trend for stratos- pheric temperature. And El Nifio should tem- porarily stop that trend, at least for a year or so. Figure 3 shows that 1998 was indeed one of the warmest years in the stratosphere in the last two decades and is testimony to El Ni?o as the cause. GREENORAMA We were besieged with news reports about how El i?o (and, by not?so-subtle extension, global warming) would cause terrible agricultural disasters. Who can forget the miles of CNN footage showing tractors mired in the Georgia mud, or network reels of browned corn in Texas? Well, some folks did poorly, and some folks did well. That happens every year. About the best way we know of to settle the overall score is in the wheat, corn, and soybean markets. When there?s a big supply, the price goes down. Demand ?uctuates some too, but a perpetually increasing population has a way of ensuring more mouths to feed. By late 1998, the price of US. wheat stood, after adjusting for in?ation, at its lowest level since reliable records began in 1915. Fluctuations in America?s massive supply of agricultural prod- ucts, more than anything, dictate the global price. Turns out all that rain in the winter?so ugly on television?was quite salutary for the major food and feed crops, especially wheat. Figure 4 shows the US. historical wheat yields, and there?s little doubt that 1998 gets the prize. Many agricultural economists and a few cli- matologists have made careers of studying the in?uence of global weather patterns on crop yields. Moisture at planting time and in the Figure 1. E1 i?o Weak Winds Higher Lower l? ressu PreSSure Iiih??a Strong Winds Lower Pressure Iilgher Pressure Figure 2. Temperature Departures .ASONDIFMAMIJ ASONDIFM 1997 1998 1999 Figure 3. Temperature Departure (0C) 1980 1?90 2000 Year 1970 1960 Figure 1. Schematic representation of the conditions that occur during an El Nino event as compared with a La Nina event. Figure 2. Daily measurements of the global temperature anomalies as observed by satellites show that the anomalies peaked in the month of April 1998 and have been declining ever since. Figure 3. The rather steady decline in stratospheric temperatures was abruptly interrupted in 1998?a strong sign of El Nirio. 05 STATE OF THE CLIMATE REPORT 1999 THE YEAR IN REVIEW Figure 4. Historical yields of wheat in the United States (inset: since 1970). The El Nina year of 1998 holds the record. Notice that yields were also very high during the last great El Ni?o year, 1983. Figure 5. The history of the Palmer Drought Severity Index for central Florida during summer. The ?lled circles indicate those years with a strong El Ni?o in the preceding winter. There is no relation between El Nina and summer droughts in Florida. 06 Figure 4. eon? ElNi\351975 1985 1995 a 20- 15- 101860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year Figure 5. 5 Wetness 3? 15. Dryness Palmer Droght Severity Index 1900 1920 1940 1960 Year ., . 1980 2000 winter before harvest is the major determi- nant?by far?of Winter wheat yield. Winter wheat is planted in the early fall, requires moisture to germinate, and then, when spring springs, is really poised to take advantage of wet soil. In addition, yields are positively in?uenced by above-normal winter temperatures. Undoubtedly, the climate of 1998 led to the record yields. But there was another factor as well: Increased carbon dioxide in the air increases yields and makes crops much more efficient in their use of moisture. As Sylvan Wittwer, former head of the Board on Agriculture of the US. National Research Council wrote, ?Overall, it has been conserva- tively estimated that global crop productivity has risen by approximately 2.5 to 10 percent, and possibly as high as 14 percent from the STATE OF THE CLIMATE REPORT 1999 current increase in atmospheric C02 over pre- industrial levels.? SEEN FIRE AND SEEN RAIN Two other prominent newsmakers this year included the spate of overland fires in Florida during the early summer, and Mitch, a real son- of?a-gun of a ?ood, but really not much of a hurricane by the time it hit land. We were tempted to say, ?Now there you go again, Al,? about Florida, when he said the fires offered a ?glimpse of what global warming may mean to families across America.? In fact, the natural Florida ecosystem (something pretty hard to find with all the Disney Worlds, Homosassa Springs and Kissimmees dotting the landscape) is attuned to fire. Judging from their writings, the early Florida explorers found the burning of the peninsula perhaps its most impressive aspect. That didn?t stop everyone from blaming all this on El Ni?o and global warming, but the fact is that, in general, there is no relationship between summer dryness in Florida and the exis- tence of an El Ni?o during the previous winter. That?s because El Ni?o makes it rain during the winter greening season. In the summer, there?s precious little documentation that El Ni?o does anything at all to Florida weather. Of course, we could blame Florida?s high temperatures this year on global warming, but that would mean ignoring the fact that changing the greenhouse effect warms up the coldest air masses a lot more than it heats up the warmer tropical ones. Hurricane Mitch was a tragedy, but unfortu- nately, not a singularity. Mitch started as a Category 5 (that?s the worst kind) hurricane in the western Caribbean. These are not all that uncommon in that part of the world. Edith (1971) and Janet (1955), for example, come to mind (Figure 6). Because it was a slow mover, as Mitch interacted with the mountains of Central America, the Winds dropped to Category 2 status, but the rains were extreme. Precipitation totals of more than 50 inches brought tremendous ?ooding and loss of life. Although the actual number of deaths remains quite elusive, it was clearly in the ten-thousand range. Speaking in Argentina at a meeting designed to strengthen the United Nations climate treaty, State Department Spokesman J. Brian Atwood told U.S. networks that Mitch was a ?typical greenhouse effect.? That was in?ammatory nonsense. A 1971?:l hurricane named Fifi, which was also a Category 2 at landfall, took much the same track and killed 7,500. Janet and Edith had much more powerful winds and wreaked tremendous havoc. Perhaps the most interesting compara- tive aspect with Mitch is that a tropical storm named Claudette, in 1979, also produced 50 inches of rain and resulted in nine deaths (that?s about 9,990 fewer than Mitch caused) when it hit Texas. Perhaps infrastructure and poverty, not global warming, created the tragedy named Mitch. Maybe, just maybe, allowing us to save our money for investment in developing nations like Honduras and El Salvador is a better idea than taking it away in an attempt to stop some- thing that would happen anyway. El Ni?o and hurricanes do share at least one common trait. They have been around for a long time and the biota of the world, thanks to the nature of evolution, likely take advantage of them. In California, rains of the magnitude that associate with El Ni?o are required to make the desert bloom. Iust any old storm isn?t enough, even though the ground gets wet. In that envi- ronment, many seeds have to be scarred by the motion of overland movement of water before they?ll even germinate. Long before banging the climate-disaster gong became the key to career advancement, federal Climatologist George Cry calculated the percentage of normal rainfall that comes from all tropical cyclones, including tropical depres- sions, storms, and hurricanes in the eastern United States. Figure 7 shows the result for September. In most of the areas with high values, American agriculture has adopted a double? crop system that plants one early, fast-maturing crop, and then replaces it with an October har- vest crop, mainly soybeans. Late August and September rain can be very important determi- nants of final yield. It?s pretty clear that years in which amounts are below normal because of lack of tropical cyclones are those in which yields are in jeopardy. People adapt to their climatic environment. The biota of the world take advantage of change, and so does our agriculture: One of the biggest El Ni?os in recent centuries produced a glut of food. That?s the lesson of 1998. But the climate hype of 1998 also has portents. If this past year is any guide, when global warm- THE YEAR IN REVIEW Figure 6. Gilbert 1 988 Edith 1971 Mitch 1998 Janet 1955 Greta 1978 Hattie 1961 Figure 7. ing becomes a major focus of the Y2K presidential campaign, the amount of distortion, exaggeration, scare stories and fear-mongering we?re sure to witness will be a real climate disaster. A References: Cry, G.W., 1967. Effects of tropical cyclone rainfall on the distribution of precipitation over the eastern and southern United States. ESSA Professional Paper, 1, US. Dept. of Commerce. Washington, DC. Michaels, 1979. Atmospheric anomalies and crop yields in North America. Dissertation. University of Wisconsin. Wittwer, S., 1995. Food Climate and Carbon Dioxide. CRC Press, Boca Raton, Fla., pp. 236. Figure 6. Six Category 4 or 5 hurricanes have occurred in the same vicinity as Mitch since 1950. That?s about one every eight years. Figure 7. The percentage of September rainfall in the eastern United States that comes from tropical systems. The regions that normally receive more than 15 percent are shaded. 07 STATE OF THE CLIMATE REPORT 1999 I-Iakala, K. 1998. Growth and yield potential of spring wheat in a simulated Changed climate with increased C02 and higher tempera- ture. European Jlournal of Agronomy, 9, 41?52. Idso, K.E., 1992. Plant Responses to Rising Levels of Carbon Dioxide: A Compilation and Analysis of the Results of a Decade of International Research into the Direct Biological Effects of Atmospheric C02 Enrichment. Climatological Publications Scienti?c Paper No. 23, Of?ce of Climatology, Arizona State University, Tempe, Ariz. Idso, KB. and Idso, SB. 1994. Plant responses to atmospheric C02 enrichment in the face of environmental constraints: A review of the past 10 years? research. Agrialltural and Forest Meteorology, 69, 153?203. Idso, 5.8., 1995. C02 and the Biosphere: The Incredible Legacy of the Industrial Revolution. Department of Soil, Water 8: Climate, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minn. Idso, SB. and B.A. Kimball, 1991. Effects of two and a half years of atmospheric C02 enrichment on the root density distribution of three-year?old sour orange trees. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 55, 345?349. Idso, 83., et al., 1989. Atmospheric C02 enrichment enhances survival of Azolla at high temperatures. Environmental and Experimental Botany, 29, 337?341. Idso, S.B., et al., 1995. Effects of atmospheric C02 enrichment and foliar methanol application on net of sour orange tree (Citrus aurantium; Rutaceae) leaves. American journal of Botany, 82, 26?30. Kimball, B.A., 1983. Carbon Dioxide and Agricultural Yield: An Assemblage and Analysis of 770 Prior Observations. U.S. Water Conservation Laboratory, Phoenix, Ariz. et al., 1998. lnterspecific differences in the response of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi to Artemisia tridentata grown under elevated atmospheric C02. New Phytologist, 138, 599?605. Korner, C., et al., 1995. C02 reSponsiveness of plants: A possible link to phloem loading. Plant, Cell ana? Environment, 18, 595?600. Lindroth, R.L., et al., 1993. Response of deciduous trees to elevated atmospheric C02: Productivity, phytochemistry and insect perfor- mance. Ecology, '74, 763?777. Madsen, E., 1975. Effect of C02 environment on growth development, fruit production and fruit quality of tomato from a physiological view- point. In: Chouard, P. and de Bilderling (eds), Phytotronics in Agricultural and Horticultural Research. Bordas, Paris, pp. 318?330. McNaughton, et al., 1989. Ecosystem?level patterns of primary productivity and herbivory in terrestrial habitats. Nature. 341, 142?144. Miglietta, E, et al., 1998. Free air C02 enrichment of potato (Solanum tuberosum L.): Development, growth and yield. Global Change Biology, 4, 163?172. Miller, A., et al., 1997. Elevated C02 effects during leaf ontogeny: A new perspective on acclimation. Plant Physiology, 115, 1195?1200. Molla, M.A.Z., et al., 1984. Microbial mineralization of organic phos? phate in soil. Plant and Soil, 78, 393?399. Mortensen, L.M., 1987. Review: CO2 enrichment in greenhouses. Crop responses. Scientia Horticulturae, 33, 1?25. Osborne, C.P., et al., 1997. Does long-term elevation of CO2 concen- tration increase in forest ?oor vegetation? Plant Physiology, 114, 337?344. Osborne, CR, 1998. Does leaf position within a canopy affect aCclimation of to elevated Plant Physiology, 117, 1037?1045. THE ABCs OF co2 Penuelas, 1., and M. Estiarte, 1998. Can elevated CO2 affect sec- ondary metabolism and ecosystem function? Trends in Ecology 67' Evolution. 13, 20?24. Penuelas, 1., et al., 1997. Carbon?based secondary compounds at elevated C02. 33, 313?316. Poorter, H. 1993. lnterspeci?c variation in the growth response of plants to an elevated ambient C02 concentration. Vegetation, 104/105, 77?97. Poorter, H., et al., 1997. The effect of elevated on the chemical composition and construction costs of leaves of 27 C3 species. Plant, Cell and Environment, 20, 472?482. Reid, CD. and EL. Fiscus, 1998. Effects of elevated and or ozone on limitations to C02 assimilation in soybean (Glycine max). Journal of Experimental Botany, 18, 885?895. Rogers, H.H., et al., 1994. Plant reSponses to atmospheric C02 enrichment with emphasis on roots and the rhizosphere. Environmental Pollution, 83, 155?189. Rouhier, H. and Read, 1998a. Plant and fungal responses to ele- vated atmospheric carbon dioxide in mycorrhizal seedlings of Pinus sylvestris. Environmental and Experimental Botany, 40, 237?246. Rouhier, H. and Read, DJ. 1998b. The role of mycorrhiza in deter- mining the response of Plantago lanceolata to CO2 enrichment. New Phytologist, 139, 367-373. Saxe, H., et al., 1998. Tansley Review No. 98, Tree and forest func- tioning in an enriched C02 atmosphere. New Phytologist, 139, 395?436. Simard, S.W., et al., 1997. Net transfer of carbon between ectomycor? rhizal tree species in the field. Nature, 388, 579?582. Sionit, N., et al., 1981. Environmental controls on the growth and yield of okra. I. Effects of temperature and carbon dioxide enrichment at cool temperature. Crop Science 21, 885?888. Tajiri, T., 1985. Improvement of bean sprouts production by intermittent treatment with carbon dioxide. Nippon Shokuhin Kogyo Gakkaishi, 32, 159?169. Tissue, D.T., et al., 1997. Atmospheric C02 enrichment increases growth and of Pinus taeda: A four?year experiment in the field. Plant, Cell and Environment, 20, 1123?1134. Tognetti, R., et al., 1998. Response of foliar metabolism in mature trees of Quercus pubescens and Quercus ilex to long?term elevated C02. Environmental and Experimental Botany, 39, 233?245. Volin, J.C., et al., 1998. Elevated carbon dioxide ameliorates the effects of ozone on and growth: Species respond sim- ilarly regardless of pathway or plant functional group. New Phytologist, 138, 315?325. Walker, R.F., et al., 1998. Growth and ectomycorrhizal colonization of ponderosa pine seedlings supplied by different levels of atmos- pheric C02 and soil and P. Forest Ecology and Management, 109, 9?20. Zimmerman, R.C.. et al., 1997. Impacts of C02 enrichment on pro- ductivity and light requirements of eelgrass. Plant Physiology, 115, 599?607. 13 STATE OF THE CLIMATE REPORT 1999 TEMPERATURES from SPACE 1998?s WARMTH BEARS THE MARK OF EL NINO BY ROY w. SPENCER, PH.D. ollowing the surface thermometer record?s lead, the satellite global temperature record reached its own historical high in 1998. As the most recent El Ni?o waned, the excess heat that built up at the sea surface in the tropics during 1997 was transferred at an accelerated rate to the deep troposphere, where satellites make temperature measurements by observing ?uctuations in the amount of microwave radiation oxygen molecules emit. The satellites observed the peak temperature in early 1998 and saw it slowly decrease to near-normal values by the end of the year (Figure 1). The average long-term trend for the period 1979?1998 now stands at per decade, which is about one-fourth of what the global warming theory of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts for the next 100 years. The long-term trend is also in con?ict with the surface thermometer record, which suggests a warming of closer to per decade for the same period of time. This difference between the surface and satellite temperature trends continues to be one of the most important unsolved questions in the field of climate change. Much research is currently under way to try to obtain a better understanding of this discrepancy. As it stands, it points to a gap in our understanding of the climate dynamics of the lower atmosphere and its interactions with the surface. Until we close that gap, we cannot rely on climate models to give us an accurate picture of what is to come. Roy W. Spencer is Senior Scientist for Climate Studies at NASA '5 Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala., where he directs research on develop- ing and applying passive microwave remote sensing tech? niques from satellites for measuring global temperature, water vapor, and precipita? tion. In 1996, the American Meteor- ological Society honored him with a Special Award for his satellite-based temperature monitor? ing work. He also received NASA 's Exceptional Scientific Achievement Medal. He is the 11.5. Team Leader for the Advanced Micro- wave Scanning Radiometer to be ?own on NASA '5 satellite in 2000. Both the House and the Senate have invited him to testify on the subject of global warming. Dr. Spencer earned his in meteo? rology from the University of Wisconsin in 1981. 15 STATE OF THE CLIMATE REPORT 1999 TEMPERATURES FROM SPACE Figure 1a. satellite-measured temperature depar- tures for the globe, since observations began in 1979. The departures are relative to the 1979?1998 mean. The trend over the course of this record is 0.05 per decade. Figure 111. satellite?measured temperature departures for the Northern Hemisphere. The trend over the course of this record is 0.11 per decade. Figure 1c. satellite-measured temperature departures for the Southern Hemisphere. There is no trend over the course of this record. 16 Figure 1a. Temperature Departures 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 Year Figurelhg4- $11979 1984 1989 1994 1999 Year Figurelc 22.4 OJ 1 79 1984 1989 1994 1999 Year STATE OF THE CLIMATE HEPORT1999 The 1997?1998 El i?o was a major climate event, and its effect on temperature was evident in both the surface and the satellite measure- ments. It was unusual both in its strength and in that there was no major volcanic eruption to mask its warming in?uence. Indeed, the past coincidence between volcanic eruptions and El i?o was so frequent that at least one climate researcher has been advocating the position that volcanoes cause E1 Ni?os to occur. But this theory has not been very p0pular in the research community. Figure 2 shows the global distribution of 1998 temperature anomalies, revealing that, as expected for an El Ni?o, most of the warmth was found in the tropics. Other warm areas in Figure 2 are located over most of North America and Greenland, with a large area averaging more than above normal for the year, and in northern Canada nearly above normal. The West Coast of the United States was below normal. Still other warm areas included much of southern Europe through the Middle East and southern Asia, Where one-half to one degree anomalies were common. Cooler?than-normal conditions dominated northern Europe through much of Russia. The cold Russian weather set records across that nation. Late fall and early winter there (September through November) were especially cold in the satellite data, with most of Russia being covered by to below normal tropospheric temperatures during the month of November. IT ALL What does a record warm year in 1998 mean in the context of global warming theory? First, El Ni?o, a naturally occurring phenomenon, is what made 1998 a record year. This does not, however, preclude the possibility that some of that warmth was contributed to by global warming. Second, any given year (or even 20?year period) cannot be interpreted in the context of global warming with much confidence since the predicted warming is only per decade. If the true amount of warming is only 50 percent of that prediction, a View that I support, then the warming amounts to only per year Given that the earth?s temperature goes through natural ?uctuations of up to per year, you can appreciate how difficult it is to identify global warming without many decades of data. This is Why scientists rely so much upon the last 100 years of the thermometer data when they search for signs that the globe is heating up. CONTINUED CONTROVERSY On the subject of the satellite vs. surface temperature trends, the controversy continues. The National Research Council has formed a panel to address those differences and what they mean. The first meeting of experts on the satellite, surface, and radiosonde measurements was held in Asheville, NC, during the week of March 8, 1999. The consensus of opinion of that panel, so far, is that some portion of the dis- agreement is likely real. but there are remaining uncertainties about the calibration of the satel- lite data. That the radiosonde record shows even less warming than the satellite (or cooling, for that matter) in the last 20 years is especially confounding. Another event of importance in 1998 was the launch of the first Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) on the satellite. This first copy of the successor to the Microwave Sounding Units (MSU) has been operating very well, and is providing much more data than we have ever had before. The AMSU can measure the temperature of 11 layers (instead of three from the MSU, two of which were useful). These layers extend from near the surface to the upper stratosphere. The design of AMSU is much newer, with better and more accurate calibrations. Its creators hope that this new source of high?quality data will lead to wider acceptance of the satellite temperature record in the future. A Reference: J.T.. t?lI al.. Eds" 19941. LT'l'imutr Th:- Firieim' nfC'limnh' {Li-mugs. of to the Second Assessment Report of the liileigimernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. New Yuri?. 572pp. Spencer. R.W.. and Ch risty. 1990. Precise monitoring of j; uhal lumlun?alure trends satellites. Science. 247, 1559? Still. And TEMPERATURES FROM SPACE Figure 2aFigure 2b. - .: 3.Figure 2a. Annual temperature departures across the Western Hemisphere during 1998. Most of the area experienced above?normal temperatures, with the exception of the southern polar regions and a small portion of the West Coast. Shaded regions are below normal. Figure 217. Annual temperature departures across the Eastern Hemisphere during 1998. Most of region experienced above?normal temperatures, with the exception of the southern polar regions and portions of northern Asia. 17 STATE OF THE CLIMATE REPORT 1999 GOING to EXTREMES MEDIA COVERAGE OF 1998?s NOT-SO-UNUSUAL WEATHER EVENTS BY ROBERT E. DAVIS, PH.D. practitioners who hold to the philOSOphy of global warming above the science, 1998 was a blessed year. Based on surface temperatures, it was the warmest year on record. It had one of the largest El i?o events in history. Killer droughts hit some areas, resulting in torrential fires that destroyed pristine wilderness. Ravaging ?ood waters submerged peaceful villagers in watery graves. Savage hurricanes decimated defenseless inhabitants who were ill-prepared to escape the storms? wrath. As our planet continues to warm because of humans? industrialization and modernization, should we expect more years of record warmth, aberrant storms, and wild weather ?uctuations? Is this a glimpse into our future? This is the common belief. The science is another matter entirely. All of these weather events actually happened in 1998, and most have likewise occurred in every calendar year since the dawn of humankind. The exception, of course, are the record temperatures and the strong El Ni?o? forever in the annals of climate history, in any discussion of the year of our Lord one thousand nine hundred and ninety-eight, the two will be inextricably linked. The El Ni?o that dominated 1998?s climate actually began in early 1997 (Figure 1). While many experts interpreted the rapid downturn in September 1997 as the beginnin of the end for this E1 Ni?o, it hung around and actually intensi? fied again in early 1998, producing an unusually long, double-peaked El Ni?o event. The last mother-of-all-El Ni?os was in 1982?1983. Although global temperatures were high that year, they have been easily surpassed many times since then. The reason? Not global warming, but volcanoes. The El Chichon vol- cano erupted in 1982. Because volcanic dust and ash re?ect away incoming solar radiation, global temperatures are significantly sup- pressed after major eruptions. Using an algo- rithm developed by satellite temperature spe- cialist Roy Spencer, the volcanic effect was removed from the global satellite temperature Robert E. Davis is associate J'ii'liJli'Ftili'i? Virginia. this primary mni t'Hm?tt' i'imugi'. Dr. Davis has written imam-nus termini tier: Htifgl'. Atirriitiir coastal storms (nor ?easters), air tyiirititjr. ?11151 irrita- ti: mships betzm'n urathcr and ?turbid- ity and mortali . A contributor to 3 i995 ii?CC report. he has trstijirii on Iqioitui the House Science Committee. He has served on 'tJI't?t?H? rnentirnubsiita?hg high?w?rhangrand data quality issues with the EPA and NCAA. Dr. Davis received his BS. in t?i'tmsyirnniu Stati- thriwrsity in ?982: and in immemm tin' University of Delaware in 1988. 19 STATE OF THE REPORT 1999 GOING TO EXTREMES Figure 1. The temporal evolution of the 1982?1983 (open circles) and the 1997?1998 El Nino events (closed circles). Figure 2a. Satellite- measured tempera- ture departures after the in?uence of volcanoes has been removed. Figure 2b. Southern Oscillation Index (801) values. The 801 has been inverted to better correspond to the satellite temperatures in Figure 2a. 20 STATE OF THE CLIMATE REPORT Figure 1982-83 ES 0 Hook? a ?1 - M4- 1997-98 FhlAhd] Figure 2a. Month Temperature Departures 2 <4 - - 1979 Figure 2b. 1984 1989 1994 1999 E1 Ni?o ?3 will .1th 1 La Nina l? t? flit? lWrle ill llj?l l'l 1? 1. Lj rl Southern Oscillation Index 1979 1954 1959 i994 I 1999 1999 record and then the adjusted temperatures were compared with the Southern Oscillation Index (801), a common measure of the status of El Ni?o (Figure 2). All of the major warm periods correspond with negative values of the 301 (or E1 Ni?o conditions). In fact, the 1998 satellite temperature departures are comparable to the 1982?1983 values after accounting for the vol? canic contribution. El Ni?o garnered extensive coverage from the media, marking the first time in history that a climatic event truly captured the imagination of the public. Everyone everywhere seemed to be talking about E1 Ni?o. On the ?ip side, despite a decade-long media deluge, no one seemed to care about global warming. In a 1997 poll of environmental issues, global warming ranked eighth behind such concerns as pollu- tion of air and waterways, loss of rain forests, and damage to the ozone layer. To an adminis- tration whose environmental agenda is built upon the threat of global warming, this was completely unacceptable. So 1998 will be remembered as the year in which El i?o was con?ated with global warm- ing. Vice President Al Gore, after finding a fed- erally funded scientist or two to back him up, hit the media preaching that if you think this year is bad, wait about 10 or 15 years when global warming gets worse?because global warming will produce a climate just like the one this El Ni?o did. Furthermore, El Ni?os will become more common or maybe even stronger when coupled with global warming. And this is the worst El Ni?o in history. Of course, that?s all nonsense. El Ni?os are as regular as prunes. And some believe they?re actually occurring a little less often. A 1998 study, based on data reconstructed from tropical and subtrOpical tree rings, shows that La Ni?as (the climatic opposite of El i?os) have actually been much more common over the past 100 years (Figure 3). Furthermore, the record warmth of 1998 was driven by tropical tempera- tures. According to a year-end report by the National Oceanic and Atm nspheric Administration, the tropics (which they define as the area between 30 degrees north and south of the equator) were a record above the long?term mean. Greenhouse Warming should be concentrated in the high latitudes in winter. In the United States, the impact of the 1998 El Ni?o was unquestionably positive. If it was indeed responsible for the elevated 1997?1998 winter temperatures, then we realized significant savings on snow removal and heating costs. From the Northeast to the Great Lakes, the January- through?May period was the warmest on record. Estimates of the national savings in energy costs alone (based on historical data from the Department of Energy?s Annual Energy Review) exceeded $5 billion. 80 the record heat of 1998 appears to be largely El Ni?o?driven. By midsummer. the prolonged El Ni?o had finally slackened off, even though temperatures remained high through November. This was not surprising, however, since there is a several-month lag between the start of El Ni?o and the beginning of high temperatums in the satellite record. Finally in December. temperatures plummeted. perhaps as a harbinger of Wilt}. when global temperatures will likely return to more typical. non?El Nifto-like norms. HARD DATA Needless to say, the media hype that accom- panied 1998?s weather was far more exceptional than the actual events. The press coverage was replete with stories about the incredibly wild ?uc- tuations observed worldwide throughout the year. These proclamations were made without supporting data. of course. But is the climate in fact more extreme in warm years than in cold? This question was addressed in several differ- ent ways by Arizona State professor Robert Balling Jr. and colleagues. Using well?established gridded global archives of temperature. they examined the relationships between month-t0- month variability and average temperature. And they uncoirered a very clear. statistically signiti~ cant signal (Figure 4). This finding convinchigly demonstrates that warm years have less temperature variability than cold years. The 50- year trend (not shown] also has a significant decline in variability that corresponds to the ris? ing temperatures during this period. In a related study, Bailing examined the vari- ability of temperature from place to place. Using gridded temperature anomalies. this time from the Northern Hemisphere. he calcu? lated the ?spatial variance? then summarized the data for each year and compared these values to hemispheric average temperatures. Once again, there is a negative (though weaker) relationship between these data (Figure 5). In GOING TO EXTREMES Figure 3. 4 ,5 .ElNifio ..C: LaNi1750 1800 1850 1900 191-10 2000 Figure 4. Cg) 2.50i? . ?5 2.25- 200' . a . Haxhh?O 1.50" . . . . I $125". 'r 1.00?0.4 ?0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 Temperature Departures Figure 5. 6 2.25. 0. 2.001.5mm 0 . 0 1.25? a 0 3" . 841.00 . 0.?0.4 ?0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Temperature Anomalies Figure 3. Historical reconstruction of the 501 using information con? tained in tree-ring growth records. Figure 4. The month-to?month variance of temperature is negatively correlat? ed with the average temperature depar? ture. This means that warmer years have less variability than colder ones. Figure 5. The spatial variance in temperature is negatively correlated to the average temperature anomaly. This means that tempera? ture varies less from place to place dur? ing warmer years. 21 STATE OF THE CLIMATE REPORT 1999 GOING TO EXTREMES Figure 6. The percentage of the United States that has experienced severe wet conditions (?lled circles) during the last five years far exceeds the percentage that has experienced severe dry conditions (open circles). Figure 7. The number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean since 1944. 22 STATE OF Figure 6. Severe Wetness 03 Percent of Country Le .W . .u 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 11 1111 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 Figure 7. leanes (J1 and Hurr Number of Tropical Storms other wrn?ds. warm years have weaker tempera- ture gradients. And since these temperature changes provide the energy needed to fuel dle and high latitude storms. We should expect fewer, weaker storm systems if greenhouse warming actually occurs. From the standpoint of precipitation (which is primarily measured oVer land), globally speaking. 1998 was completely unremarkable, according to data from the Department of Commerce. despite all the so?called wacky weather. The global precipitation departure fell a mere 10th of an inch above normal. Precipitation was below normal in the tropics between 10 degrees north and south, but consid? erably above normal over the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. In the United States, the long-standing tendency for wet (as opposed to dry) conditions continued?4 998 was the 5th? wettest year on record. In many areas, most of THE CLIMATE REPORT 1999 A Severe Dryness the rain fell in the first half of the year, when E1 Ni?o was still strong. Over the last years, the percentage of the land area of the United States experiencing severe or extreme wet con- ditions far exceeded the area under drought (Figure 6). This tendency toward wetness over drought has persisted throughout much of the last century. HURRICANES Hurricanes always garner their share of press attention, and 1998 was certainly no exception. Hurricane Mitch, a very wet, very slow-moving storm, made landfall in an area of Honduras that was ill-prepared to deal with even a modest hurricane. With 14 named storms, the Atlantic tropical season was rather active. And once again, El Ni?o (or more specifically, its counter- part, La Ni?a) is to blame. There is a well-established negative relation- ship between the number of Atlantic hurricanes and the strength of El Ni?o. In the long-term record of annual tropical storm and hurricane counts for the Atlantic (Figure 7), note the lack of storms during the El i?o year of 1997 (eight named storms) compared with 1996 and 1998. Had the E1 Ni?o persisted a few months into hurricane season, the 1998 number probably would have drOpped. But El Ni?o started declining in strength just before the main Atlantic hurricane season, resulting in a high storm total. The opposite situation occurred over the western Pacific. With only 17 named storms, 1998 was one of the most quiescent periods in the last 40 years. Unfortunately, in this era of global warming phiIOSOphy trumping global warming science, misconceptions about the cause of major storms such as Hurricane Mitch abound. It is therefore incumbent upon climatologists to continue to set the record straight. There is no linkage between warm years and tropical cyclone counts. Figure 8 shows the number of tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes) in the Atlantic vs. global temperature departures from the long?term aver- age. This is a classic random scatter plot?some warm years have few storms while others have many (1995, a warm, stormy year, stands out at the top right of the plot). The filled circles identify the last 10 years. Despite above-normal tempera- tures throughout the decade, five of those years had below-average tropical cyclone counts. The same holds for the real killer storms such as Mitch (Category 5 hurricanes on the Saffir? Simpson intensity scale). These storms are almost equally common in years in which the Northern Hemisphere is cooler than normal as opposed to warmer. The global warming?hurricane relation? ship only exists in the uncluttered minds of global warming philosophers, and not in the minds of global warming scientists. TORNADOES The only storm type more awe-inspiring than hurricanes is tornadoes, which have escaped the bad company of a global warming linkage. Until 1998, that is. In June, Vice President Al Gore connected the number of tor- nado deaths and global warming by indicating that the 122 deaths that occurred thusfar during the year was a record. This statement was ?at- out wrong. Examination of the long?term torna? do fatality records for the United States shows many high death counts in the 19508, 19605, and 19705 (Figure 9). This should come as a sur- prise to no one, of course, since tornado pre- paredness, warning systems, and building con- struction and code enhancements have saved many lives over the past few decades. Someone could just as mindlessly conclude, based on Figure 9, that global warming has saved thou- sands of American lives by reducing the number of destructive tornadoes. So 1998 will be remembered as a year when the climate was hot and the rhetoric even hot- ter. The El Ni?o that dominated 1997?1998 will generate many legitimate scientific studies and will probably go down in history as one. of the more significant climate events of the latter part of the 20th century. It also provides the context in which the record temperatures of 1998 must be placed. For if you see 1998 as the year when global warming began to take hold, then you must also expect similar weather conditions in 1999 and 2000, which are highly unlikely to experience a significant E1 Ni?o event. And if 1999 ends up as cold as 1998 would have been sans El Ni?o, we can only hope that the rhetoric of the global warming philosophers cools as much as our planet. A GOING TO EXTREMES Figure8o?og 0&3 o.?ao 3?bit? as on 5?21? 8 80 0 2?Number of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Figure 9. 600 500- - 400 300. . letl .7 100 .1 l? 19501955 1960 196519701975 19801985 1990 1995 2000 Natonal Deaths from Tornadoes References: Annual ljm'rgu Review, 1997. Dept. of Energy, Washingtun. TIC. Bailing. R.C., 1998. Analysis of daily and spatial variance components in historical temperature records. Physical tia'ragraplry, 13, 54?1 552. Christy, 1994. Satellite greenhouse signal. Nature, 367, 325. Miclinels. Pl. nt al.. 1998. Analysis of trends in the varinl'vili- ty of t'l?ll?f and historical temperature measnnr- Climate Research, 10. 22?371. Stahle, D.W., et a1.. ?993. Experimental dendroclimatic reconstruction of the Southern Oscillation. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 79, 2137?2152. Figure 8. The number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic vs. the global temperature departure. The filled circles are the last 10 years. While the last decade has been warmer than normal, the number of tropical storms and hurricanes is equally distributed above and below the mean (shaded vertical line). Figure 9. Annual number of deaths from tornadoes in the United States since 1953 (?lled circles). The shaded bars represent the decadal averages. 23 STATE OF THE CLIMATE REPORT 1999 - h. JO. THE ABCS 0f C02 CARBON MANY BENEFITS BY CRAIG D. IDSO, PH.D. 0720 do I love thee? Let me count the ways. Elizabeth Barrett Browning?s Hromantic poem perfectly captures the all-encompassing emotion of love. Though Miss Browning surely had human beings in mind when she wrote these words, she would not have been far off the mark if she were inspired by plants, for if plants could articulate their feelings we are sure that they too would recite these lines?to carbon dioxide. Carbon dioxide is an elixir of life, promoting the growth and vigor of the planet?s plant life and, thereby, its animal life as well. Like love, carbon dioxide?s many splendors are difficult to describe. Nevertheless, we shall try. Here, then, is your guide to the botanical benefits of atmospheric carbon dioxide, from A to Z. POLLUTION STRESSES are generally alleviated as the air?s carbon dioxide (C02) content rises; because with more C02 in the air, most plants reduce their leaf stomatal openings, thereby decreasing their uptake of gaseous air pollutants that might otherwise damage their tissues and, in the case of agricultural crops, reduce their yields (Reid and Fiscus, 1998; Volin et al., 1998). BRANCH NUMBERS of most plants are typically increased under conditions of elevated atmospheric C02, due to the greater amounts of biomass produced under this favorable circumstance (Bucher et al., 1997; Tissue et al., 1997). ELL SIZE in some plants has been reported to increase with atmospheric C02 enrichment (Ferris and Taylor, 1994). Craig D. Idea is president of the (Tr'itfi'r'jiai? Ille' filrtti]; of Cerium Dioxide um! Chaim! Cimnge. Mm?wamm? since its inception in January 1993. the lrt' t'tfl'lft?lf PH.D. in get-agin? wwmeMm M?m?mmw Hr. Mao ?rings nmitn'lfmripinmr1} study nfglolmf mm? rhouge.inrfuding trirri ttgiiCLHIIUtt [in hfso hm: published on issues whiting to lie: growing season. the seasonal cycle of atmos heric cm?l'ron dioxi e, and urban carbon dioxide concentrations. 09 STATE OF THE CLIMATE REPORT 1999 THE ABCS OF C02 Figure 1. Percent growth enhance- ment as a function of atmospheric C02 enrichment in parts per million (ppm) above the normal, or ambient, atmos- pheric C02 concen? tration. These data, representing a wide mix of plant species, were derived from 342 peer-reviewed scientific journal articles written by 484 scientists residing in 28 countries and representing 142 different research institutions. Adapted from the review of Idso (1992). 10 STATE OF THE Figure 300 600 9:10 12001500 1800 2100 2400 Atmospheric C02 Enrichment (ppm above ambient) of plants are often Denllanced by elevated concentrations of atmospheric C02, which tend to increase the amounts of defensive compounds in plant leaves as a deterrent against herbivore attacks (Lindroth et al., 1993; Gleadow et al., 1998). EARLY GROWTH of plants is a phenomenon that is a frequent conse- quence of atmospheric C02 enrichment, often boosting their growth rates as early as the day that growth begins. This early stimulation is regularly found to be responsible for enhanced productivity in later stages of the plant?s devel- opment (Miller et al., 1997; Farage et al., 1998). ROOT is enhanced under Felevated C02 ctmcentrations. as is total below-ground growth in most plants. The pri- mary role of fine roots is to take in nutrients and water from the soil (Idso and Kimball, 1991; Rogers et al., 1994). Rt 1an RI-SPONSES of plants to rising Galmosplieric C02 concentrations are evident in greater vegetative biomass produc- tion (Figure 1). For herbaceous plants, hundreds of observations of this phenomenon document- ed by Cure and Acock (1986), Mortensen (1987), Idso (1992) and Poorter (1993) have revealed that a doubling of the atmospheric C02 concentration increases plant biomass produc- tion by 30 percent to 50 percent. Most recently, Saxe et a1. (1998) compiled and analyzed the results of more than 300 studies of woody plant responses to atmospheric carbon dioxide enrichment, determining that conifers and deciduous trees increase their biomass by 130 percent and 50 percent, respectively, CLIMATE REPORT 1999 in response to an approximate doubling of the air?s C02 content. I It]? is typically reduced or alleviated under elevated C02 conditions, because the higher C02 concentrations enable plants to maintain positive leaf carbon exchange rates in situations where they might oth? erwise lose carbon and die (Idso et al., 1989, 1995). NTENSITY or Some is not a limit- Iing factor to plant growth at high COZ as it is at low COz?elevated C02 has often been observed to reduce a plant?s light compensation point, or the light intensity at which the amount of carbon fixed by is equal to that lost by respiration. This phenomenon is especially beneficial to shaded vegetation grow? ing beneath forest canopies that block out much of the incoming sunlight (Osborne et al., 1997). It also helps aquatic plants extend their life zones to greater depths below the surface of the water (Zimmerman et al., 1997). um I I SI Inna-.11 Fonts-u. Nun-o was lhal link plant root systems one often enhanced by almospheric (:02 enrichment (Ronhier and Read, 1998a; Walker et al., 1998). These networks have recently been observed to serve as pipelines for transferring nutrients from plants that have an abundance of them at their disposal to plants that are lacking in this regard, even between different species (Simard etal., 1997). Consequently, this phenomenon, which is enhanced by elevated lev- els of atmospheric C02, should help natural ecosystems to maintain high levels of species rich- ness or biodiversity. EY Item II. as in plants are modi- fied by almospheric C02 enriclunent in ways that enhance total plant growth. With more C02 in the air, for example, both the amount and activity of rubisco, which is the primary carbon- fixing enzyme in plants, are reduced. However, these reductions are beneficial to the plant in the long run (Osborne et al., 1998), for they allow for the transfer of nitrogen from the apparatus of the plant, Where it is typically pre? sent in excess under ambient C02 concentrations, to areas of the plant where it would otherwise not be present in sufficient quantity to facilitate maxi- mal growth (Bryant et al., 1998). LOW STRESS may sometimes be reduced in plants growing in elevated C02 (Boese et a1., 1997). In some cases, the higher C02 concentrations have actually enabled plants to grow to maturity and produce fruit, when control plants in ambient air died (Sionit et a1., 1981). Mi'tJUM-it-i Inn. Fl that inhabit the soil and form symbiolic relationships with plant roots are nearly always benefited by the extra carbohydrates they obtain from C02- enriched plants. And in return, they typically enhance the soil nutrient and water gathering capacities of the plants, helping them to grow better still (Klironomos et a1., 1998; Rouhier and Read, 1998b). NONSTRUCTURAL CARBOHYDRATES, includ? ing glucose, fructose, sucrose and starch, are produced in greater quantities under elevated C02 conditions in nearly all plants. These important substances can then be trans- ported to sites of new growth to support the plant?s continued development (Korner et a1., 1995; Poorter et a1., 1997). Ol'l'lMl IM GROWTH TEMPERATURES of most plants typically rise with increasing levels of atmospheric C02. For a 300 increase in the air?s C02 content, the temperature at which plants grow best has been observed to rise by a mean of approximately in a number of differ- ent species (Idso and Idso, 1994). This response is more than enough to totally compensate for the worst-case scenario of climate-model-predicted COZ-induced global warming (Idso, 1995). :1 IF I Ic RATES of the great major? ity of plants rise as the air?s C02 content rises, resulting in substantial increases in growth and yield (Idso and Idso, 1994; Saxe et a1., 1998). ?is or ANIMAL LIFE should rise dra- matically with the ongoing rise in the air?s C02 content; for several studies have Shown that the biomass of plant-eating animals in both terres- trial and aquatic ecosystems rises hand in hand with increases in ecosystem plant productivity (McNaughton et a1., 1989; and Pace, 1993). R: [llx't 11'th nearly always increases as result of atmospheric CO: enrichment (Curtis et a1., 1990; Rogers et a1., 1994), often even Figure 2. ?a 251: Water Stressed 8 20? -O- Adequate Water i 150- 100 50 to 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Atmospheric C02 Enrichment (ppm above ambient) Figure 3. 250 Resource Limited and Stressed a; -O- Not Resource Limited or Stressed 200 If Ill I ?ll f/v 4'5 ,r'f 1mi600 Atmospheric C02 Enrichment (ppm above ambient) more than above-ground biomass (Ceulemans and Mousseau, 1994). By increasing the size of taproots and the number and size of lateral roots (Entry et a1., 1998), along with the ever-important fine-root biomass (Idso and Kimball, 1991), elev? ated C02 helps plants more effectively obtain the water and nutrients they need (Figure 2). ENESCENCE in plants exposed to elevated C02 is sometimes accelerated, shortening the time it takes certain agricultural crops to reach maturity and thereby effectively decreas- ing the time that the crops are in the field (Hakala, 1998; Miglietta et a1., 1998). Wk W. or plant evaporal'ive water loss, is greatly reduced under atmospheric C02 enrichment due to COz-induced decreases in leaf stomatal conductance (Tognetti et a1., 1998). OF NI . NTH sum the soil requires the expenditure Of energy from plants. The near-ubiquitous COZ-induced increase in leaf THE ABCs or co2 Figure 2. Percent growth enhance? ment as a function of atmospheric C02 enrichment in parts per million (ppm) above the normal atmospheric C02 concentration for plants growing under stressful and resource?limited conditions and for similar plants grow? ing under ideal con- ditions. Each line is the mean result obtained from 298 separate experi- ments. Adapted from the review of Idso and Idso (1994). Figure 3. Percent growth enhance? ment as a function of atmospheric C02 enrichment in parts per million (ppm) above the normal, or atmospheric C02 concentration for plants growing under well-watered and water-stressed conditions. Each line is the mean result obtained from 55 separate experiments. Adapted from the review of Idso and Idso (1994). 11 STATE OF THE CLIMATE REPORT 1999 THE ABCs OF co2 12 STATE OF THE nonstructural carbohydrates can be used to gener- ate additional energy for this purpose (BassiriRad et al., 1998). Also, greater quantities of organic acids secreted by plant rhizosphere organisms stimulated by their COz-enriched hosts hasten the chemical weathering of soil minerals and make them more available to plants (Molla et al., 1984). ITAMINJ in?. is of certain food crops may be enhanced by atmospheric C02 enrichment, as has been observed in tomatoes (Madsen, 1975) and bean sprouts (Tajiri, 1985). WATER-USE EFFICIENCY, or the amount of carbon gained per unit of water lost, generally increases substantially with atmos- pheric C02 enrichment, sometimes even dou- bling with a doubling of the air?s C02 content (Fernandez et al., 1998). In addition, when plants are growing under less-than-optimal con- ditions of soil water availability, the percent growth enhancement due to atmospheric C02 enrichment is generally greater than it is when water is readily available to them (Idso and Idso, 1994) (Figure 3). Elevated levels of C02 therefore tend to compensate for less than opti- mal water supplies (Arp et al., 1998); and they help plants recover more quickly and more completely when they have experienced a period of severe water stress (Ferris et al., 1998). Era Carbon?Based Secondary Plant {Templar mils are also a consequence of C02 enrichment (Penuelas et al., 1997). Their presence in leaf tissues, particularly those of woody plants (Penuelas and Estiarte, 1998), may help protect forests from the ravages of certain pests. YIN lih' OF CROPS rise in tandem with the air?s C02 content, as literally thousands of experiments have demonstrated (Kimball, 1983; Idso, 1992), increasing by about 30 percent for a 300 increase in the air?s C02 concentration (Cure and Acock, 1986; Mortensen, 1987). Z: we: will not have to shift pulewa rd to keep up with climatic regimes to which they are currently accustomed if the globe warms in the future, as long as the air?s CO2 content continues to rise. Plants tend to like higher temperatures when the air?s C02 content is higher (Idso and Idso, 1994). With COz-induced increases in plant water use efficiency, however, CLIMATE REPORT 1999 there will likely be an expansion of vegetative zones into areas of the world that are currently too dry to support them (Idso, 1995). So there you have it, C02 enhancement from A to Z?Air pollution stress to a shift in the var- ious Zones of vegetation. Were there more let? ters, we would surely continue, for these are just some of the many benefits of carbon dioxide on the biosphere. For to the biosphere, a molecule of C02 is a many?splendored thing. For plants, in particular, it is the very elixir of life. A References: Arp, et al., 1998. Interactions between elevated C02 concentra- tion, nitrogen and water: effects on growth and water use of six perennial plant species. Plant, Cell and Environment, 21, 1?11. BassiriRad, H., et al., 1998. Growth and root NO3- and PO43- uptake capacity of three desert species in response to atmospheric C02 enrichment. Australian Journal of Plant Physiology, 24, 353?358. Boese, S.R., et al., 1997. Elevated C02 mitigates chilling-induced water stress and reduction during chilling. Plant, Cell and Environment, 20, 625?632. Bryant, et al., 1998. acclimation to elevated C02 is modified by grassland swards grown in a free air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) experiment. Plant, Cell and Environment, 21, 159?168. Bucher, et al., 1997. Growth of deciduous tree seedling commu- nities in response to elevated CUR and nutrient supply. than the 17th lnlr'i'natinimi l'i'lr'i'ir'ug,I for Spl'riuiists in Air Pollution Fifth ts on Forest Ecosystems?Stress Factors and Air Pollution, Florence, 14?19 September 1996. Ceulemans, R., and M. Mousseau, 1994. Tansley Review, No. 71, Effects of elevated atmospheric C02 on woody plants. New Phytologist, 127, 425?446. Cure, and B. Acock, 1986. Crop responses to carbon dioxide doubling: A literature survey. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 38, 127?145. Curtis, P.S., et al., 1990. Elevated atmospheric C02 effects on below?ground processes in C3 and C4 estuarine marsh communities. Ecology, '71, 2001?2006. Cyr, H., and L. Pace, 1993. Magnitude and patterns of herbivory in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Nature, 361, 148?150. Entry, et al., 1998. In?uence of C02 enrichment and nitrogen fertilization on tissue chemistry and carbon allocation in longleaf pine seedlings. Plant and Soil, 200, 3?11. Farage, PK, et al., 1998. Does a low nitrogen supply necessarily lead to acclimation of to elevated Plant Physiology, 118, 573?580. Fernandez, M.D., et al., 1998. Effects of a natural source of very high C02 concentration on the leaf gas exchange, xylem water potential and stomatal characteristics of plants of Spatiphylum cannifolinm and Bauhinia multincmia. New Pliytologist, 138, 689?697. Ferris, R. and G. Taylor, 1994. Increased root growth in elevated C02: a biophysical analysis of root cell elongation. journal of Experimental Botany, 45, 1603?1612. Ferris, R., et al., 1998. Recovery of after environmen? tal stress in soybean grown under elevated C02. Crop Science, 38, 948?955. Gleadow, R.M., et al., 1998. Enhanced C02 alters the relationship between and defence in cyanogenic Eucalyptus clario- calyx F. Muell. Plant, Cell and Environment, 21, 12?22. A MAN AHEAD of his TIME DISCUSSIONS WITH A CLIMATE CHANGE PIONEER AN INTERVIEW WITH REID A. BRYSON, PH.D. adison, Wise?Chief Editor Patrick]. Michaels traveled to the University of Wisconsin?s Center for Climatic Research in search of the origins of climate change science. There, he interviewed senior scientist Reid A. Bryson, who founded one of the first interdisciplinary institutes in the United States dedicated to studying the relation between climate and society. More than any other single scientist, Bryson is responsible for the notion that climate ?uctuates in ways that are economically and socially important. Bryson proved his theory long before there were computer simulations of climate, with painstaking field studies on areas ranging from the Arctic to the Atacama Desert. One such study, of the Mill Creek Indian culture in Iowa, was particularly famous. By examining historical pollen records and other artifacts, Bryson and archaeologist David Baerreis determined that the climate of the Great Plains can undergo decadal shifts between drought and moist conditions. Federal climatologists have recently gener- ated headlines by saying the same thing, only three decades later. Long before the current computer models were developed, Bryson calculated the effects of carbon dioxide, volcanoes, and man?made aerosols on the climate. More than 20 years ago, he concluded that the dust effects were easily enough to dwarf greenhouse warming. Two decades later, when climate modelers searched for an excuse for the lack of predicted warming, they invoked human aerosols. Perhaps a few billion dollars would have been saved had we all listened to Bryson at the outset. Reid A. Bryson considers ?inter? disciplinary earth science with a strong humanistic compo- nent? to be his field of study. His pioneering work in developing new approaches to climatology includes airstream analysis and quantitative, objective methods of reconstructing past climates. After a stint in the Air Weather Service, Dr. Bryson joined the University of Wisconsin geology and geography facul- ?esin 1946.Iie founded Wisconsin?s meteorology depart- ment; the Center for Climatic Research (where he is still senior scientist); and the world?renowned Institute for Envi- ronmental Studies. Dr. Bryson has writ? ten more than 200 papers and five books and is at work on three more. The British Institute of Geographers calls him the most cited Climatologist in the world. He earned his from the University of Chicago. 25 STATE OF THE CLIMATE REPORT 1999 A MAN AHEAD OF HIS TIME 26 ?When I first brought up the idea that climate changes can occur on a short enough time scale to have important social and economic implications, I was accused of being ?full of PIM: I understand that your interest in the weather started while you were growing up in the upper midwest. RAB: Yes, I remember sitting in our kitchen in the drought years of the Thirties thinking, ?Gee, it looks like it might actually rain.? Then this big thunderstorm came along and I watched what seemed to be mud balls hit the window. It turned out that the raindrops were actually scouring dust from the air which came from Oklahoma and Kansas. I also remember the heat. It seemed like people were dying like ?ies, all over the place. Every day the newspaper would carry stories about the deaths like, ?110 people died from the heat.? The next day there would be only 95. The day after that would be something like 120 dead in the city of Detroit alone. There was no place to hide back then. PIM: Well, the Dust Bowl eventually ended, and the climate actually cooled for several decades between then and the warming of the past few decades. Witnessing these changes first?hand must have been one of the inspirations for your interest in climate change, a topic to which you?ve devoted the better part of your career. Some people essentially say that you defined the field of climate change. RAB: Whether or not I did, I have been studying climate and climate change for a long time. When I first brought up the idea that STATE OF THE CLIMATE REPORT 1999 climate changes can occur on a short enough time scale to have important social and economic implications, I was accused of being ?full of it.? There were some very big, important scientists in this country who were saying, ?Climatic changes are not big, and besides, climate always comes back to the mean, and changes always happen slowly, so it?s nothing to worry about anyhow because we?ll adapt.? Now they?re on the other side of the fence. PIM: What happened? RAB: I didn?t change. It became worth money to take the viewpoint I was espousing, but I caught hell for it. In fact the leading Climatologist from [the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin- istration] at that time called me a Cassandra, not realizing that Cassandra?s curse was that she was always right but nobody would listen! PIM: What about our future climate with an increas- ing greenhouse effect? The most realistic estimates are that the global temperatures will rise somewhere between 1 and during the next century. The accompanying forecasts are that extreme weather will become more common. Does this sound plausible? RAB: Climate changes naturally and it changes everywhere. It changes rapidly, and it stays changed. It?s a nonstationary time series, so you cannot define the mean. I can show you in the published records that the variance changes by more than 50 percent from one set of decades to the other. In other words, it doesn?t make sense to talk about how global warming will change the variance, because it will change by itself. PIM: It seems like we read everywhere this year that El Nino becomes more frequent with global warming. RAB: This is absolutely, ?at-out wrong. Sandweiss saw it years ago when he showed that in the last 5,000 years there has been cold upwelling along the Peruvian coast, broken by intervals known as El Ni?o. Before 5,000 years ago there was always warm water, so there was continuous El Ni?o during ice ages, and cold water during interglacials. In other words, El Ni?o?type occurrences with warm water along that coast go with ice ages, not with warming. The fact of the matter is that the climate system is a pretty stable one. My old friend Eddie Lorenz started off by saying, ?The ?ap of a butter?y?s wings in the Amazon and all that, implying a big positive feedback. But if there was that much positive feedback in the climate system, you and I would not be here talking about it, because in an unstable situation like that, civilization wouldn?t have evolved so there wouldn?t be any scientists to argue about it! PIM: Well, what if the climate did change a bit? What would happen if the global mean temperature cooled a degree and and a half Celsius? After all, not many centuries ago it was cooler in many places. RAB: Right. Northern Europe becomes less of a food supplier, Russia starves. In North America, not a lot of things change. It brings the Irish potato blight back. PIM: These kinds of temperature changes were noted in your work on the Mill Creek Culture. It started out warm, and then the temperature dropped. What happened? RAB: The big change was from about 1000 to 1150 AD. The rainfall ?uctuation was the main thing. During the warm period the rainfall was about 50 percent more than when it became cold. When it got cold, the westerlies shifted southward in the Northern Hemisphere [taking the rains with them]. In southern Illinois the precipitation reduc- tion was apparently on the order of 75 percent, and that wiped out the Cahokia Middle Missis- sippian culture, leaving their frontier outpost here in Wisconsin high and dry. They disappeared! PIM: Now warm the world up a degree. RAB: In some areas it gets wetter, like in the Sahel [the area to the south of the Sahara Desert]; in some areas it gets drier, like in North Africa. Turkey becomes drier with a warming. It would probably improve the Russian rainfall and the Indian monsoons. PIM: What about in the United States? Do you think that increasing the temperature of the globe a degree or so will increase the likelihood of climate ?uctuations like these decadal droughts in the Great Plains? RAB: No, I don?t think so. My experience with climatic ?uctuations suggests the warmer periods in Earth?s history have been less variable than the A MAN AHEAD OF HIS TIME ?Climate changes naturally and it changes everywhere. It changes rapidly, and it stays changed. It?s a nonstationary time series, so you cannot define the mean.? cold periodsyears ago?I think this is still approximately the truth?is that warm periods are dominated by sunlight, and cold periods are dominated by the lack of it, in part because of the modulation of volcanoes. PIM: Sounds like there are a lot more things involved in climate change than just carbon dioxide. RAB: I started the Institute for Environmental Studies at the University of Wisconsin in 1962 to conduct interdisciplinary research on climate and society. This was at a time when there were not many interdisciplinary science programs. Climate change is not a simple issue, with easily understood causes and effects. Nor are any of the big problems in society. Complex issues do not fall within the expertise of a single disci- pline. The only way you can deal with signifi- cant problems is to be interdisciplinary. You don?t do that with a committee, because creativ- ity is within the individual head. So you must train people to think, at a high level, in more than one discipline. This is the only way to even begin to understand what is going on. You must first be able to answer the question of why climate changed before the advent of large-scale industry and only then can you start to explain how it might change afterward. A STATE OF THE CLIMATE REPORT 27 1999 BASKING in the WINTER WARMTH WHY HIGHER TEMPERATURES ARE BETTER BY THOMAS GALE MOORE, PH.D. ast year was by all standards the warmest yet recorded. During the Little Climatic Optimum of 800 to 1,000 years ago, there were probably some years that were hotter, but thermometers and satellites necessary to verify the torrid readings were centuries in the future. In 1998, for once, ground-based readings and satellite measurements agreed that most places were warm and for most of the year. A large portion of the globe recorded those higher?than-normal readings. In the United States, all sections of the country, with the exception of the West, enjoyed higher-than?usual temperatures, often records for the year (Table 1). Relative to normal, the Northeast, the East North-Central, and the Central regions of the United States recorded the warmest weather. People may differ in their taste for sunny, warm days, but most of us evidently appreciated the absence of winter freezes: In response to the 1997?1998 El Ni?o?spawned weather, newspapers and magazines published a spate of articles describing the many benefits, and downright pleasure, that many found with the lack of a ?real? winter. Interestingly, a warmth similar to 1998?s occurred in Great Britain in 1995, and was the subject of a recently released British study. Here, we compare how people fared on each side of the Atlantic during these exceptional periods. Thomas Gale Moore is the author of Climate of Fear: Why We Shouldn?t Worry About Global Warming (Cato Institute. 1998). Dr. Moore is at University?s Hmmi't institution. where in specializes in international t'i?cg?ttirtiitlti. twirl-attrition, and the cii'ii'irwinieiit. He was a member of President Kuwaiti Reagan's of Economic Advisers from 'itlti? to [989, as tacit as on President?s National Critical Materials Council. In 1989, he served on the President?s National Commission on Air scholar of the Cato insti? tute. hr lite [Emmi of diffr- illt'H of the Cutti? Jrietititii' Enterprise institute amt the Independent tasti- ute. He is also on the advisory intuit! of the institute tilt Market itt Sofia, But aria. t-ti' i'ri'eived is Phil tram the of {finisiigu in 1961. STATE OF THE CLIMATE REPORT 1999 WHY HIGHER TEMPERATURES ARE BETTER 30 THIS SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC TAXES. The New York Times reported Feb. 27, 1998, that the warmth had been a blessing for road-plowing budgets, had significantly reduced heart attacks from shoveling snow, and had improved commuter train service by virtually eliminating delays. Public works chiefs were cheering their virtually untouched bank accounts. Snow removal budgets and salt for the highways remained unused. During the ?winter? of 1998, Greenburgh, .Y., spent only $45,000 of its bud- geted $325,000 for clearing the roads. With deliv- eries of oil down 20 percent, homeowners enjoyed significant savings on their heating bills. The Philadelphia School District estimated spending on energy would be down by $1.5 mil- lion. For the state as a whole, government officials predicted expenditures on winter roads would drop by $20 million. The .I. Department of Transportation boasted that the mild winter saved about a quarter of its winter budget. ECONOMY. The good weather was generally good for business. Shoppers in the East and Midwest, lured by the balmy weather, turned out in force. In New York City, sales rose 5 percent in February, largely because of the weather. Construction companies, real estate agents, and transportation firms all benefited from the absence of snow and day after day of sunny skies. Transport companies as well as consumers enjoyed the lowest gasoline prices since the World War II. Several factors contributed to the precipi- tous decline in gasoline prices: the collapse of sev- eral Asian economies and the consequent fall in the demand for energy; a partial lifting of the embargo on Iraqi production of oil; and, most important, a warmer world which reduced demand for heating oil, natural gas, and electricity. Energy prices fell across the board (Table 2). Minnesota, which enjoyed one of the warmest winters this century, reported that the weather was a boon for its economy. Minnegasco, the nat- ural gas company, suffered, of course, from a 15 percent cut in sales. But the utility benefited from a sharp reduction in emergency repairs: in January, there were 21 percent fewer calls; in February, 13 percent fewer. Northern State Power, a major power company in the upper Midwest, also reported reduced sales of electricity, offset in part by lower expenses. On net, residents gained significantly?beyond just individual households? STATE OF THE CLIMATE REPORT 1999 savings in heating bills of $135 to $150. Roofers in the upper Midwest were able to do more business; field workers were less encum- bered by heavy clothes, and tools were warmer and easier to use. In winter, milk delivery compa- nies suffer when snow and ice create obstacles for their trucks. In 1998, in contrast, a major Minn- esota dairy, Nelson Creamery, reported no deliv? ery delays; during the more typical winter of 1997, the company had two truck rollovers; sev- eral other vehicles slid into ditches. The firm spent $1,200 for wrecker services in 1997; zero in 1998. The good climate produced a bounty on the farm. Increased production meant lower incomes for farmers, but it also meant lower prices for con- sumers. Contrary to the assertions of global warming activists, who typically forecast crop failures, 1998?s warm climate produced bumper crops. Farm prices were 13 percent below what they had been in the years 1992 to 1996. LIFESTYLE. At driving ranges, golfers in record numbers improved their game. As the March 28, 1998, Sunday Westchester Weekly put it, ?Golfers basked in a springlike glow almost straight through from November to March, the period that used to be known as winter.? Golf courses enjoyed more business than ever. Spring fever was in the air. Even turtles and snakes were out much earlier than is normal. The unusual weather did have a down side: Princeton sophomores bemoaned the lack of snow, which threatened the wintertime ritual of a nude midnight footrace through the Yard. Those who make extra money plowing driveways also were mourning the lack of white stuff. Towing services, which profit when cars get stuck, remained under- used. Though consumers saved money on heating bills, gas and oil companies suffered from reduced demand, lower prices, and less revenue. There can be no sunshine without some sunburn. HEALTH. The Minneapolis Post Office reported its mail carriers? sprained ankles and falls were down 40 percent. Only one postal worker got frostbite in 1998, compared with the normal tally of three or four. The absence of harsh weather also meant that service was smoother and more timely while overtime costs were down. Global warming fear-mongers often predict that a warmer climate will kill people. That is not what happened in 1998. For the first 12 weeks of the year, overall deaths in New York City were down more than 8 percent from the 1996 levels and down 4.5 percent from the previous year. The next summer, one of the hottest on record, mortal- ity was 6 percent lower than during the cooler summer of 1996 and, of course, it was lower (about 15 percent) than it had been during the winter. Winter?s seeming absence provided mental and emotional benefits as well. Northern Westchester Hospital director of Dr. Maureen Empfield said the weather improved people?s moods: ?Rarely does anyone come into my office and complain about sunshine.? In Minnesota, airlines reported travel to sunnier climes was down, good news for Twin-Cities residents, though not for Northwest Airlines. In the East, low-income elderly residents were delighted with more than just the savings on their heating bills. One octogenarian was deeply thank- ful for the warm sunny weather, which staved off .despondency. Helen Nem complained that she suffers from depression when winter brings snow; 1998 was a year without gloom. And Ervin Pogue of Bucks County, Pa., bragged that this had been the best winter of his 77-year life. ?This winter,? he said, chortling, ?I?ve had a ball.? At the zoo, tropical animals, normally inside all winter, were allowed out, much to the delight of the public and undoubtedly of the animals as well. Attendance was up 50 percent at the Philadelphia Zoo in January and February. Even birds benefited: the absence of snow cover meant that they had a plentiful supply of plants for food. ACROSS THE POND The warmth of 1998 was also felt across the Atlantic in Great Britain, recalling a similarly warm time: 1995. Researchers recently complet- ed a series of studies aimed at assessing how people got along during that warm year. The Global Atmospheric Division of the British Department of Environment commissioned the University of East Anglia to study the economic impacts of 1995?s exceptional temperatures. Although they failed to put a dollar or pound figure on the results, they concluded that, by and large, it was a good year. The university?s Climatic Research Unit reported that the 12 months between November 1994 and October 1995 were the warmest in more than 300 years, and the summer was warmer than the 1961?1990 average. The East Anglia WHY HIGHER TEMPERATURES ARE BETTER Table 1. Table 1. A Annual average verage empera ures eglon temperatures for climate regions Region Normal 1996 1997 1998 46 49 3 across the Nort east 46.1 . 45.8 . United States E. North-Central 43.5 41.5 43.4 47.7 . urmg the past Central 53.2 52.2 52.6 56.3 three years. Southeast 62.4 61.9 62.4 64.7 W. North-Central 43.3 41.4 43.8 45.6 South 62.0 62.3 61.5 64.5 Southwest 51.8 53.8 52 .3 52.8 Northwest 46.7 47.1 47.8 48.6 West 55.0 57.3 56.8 54.6 National 52.4 52.3 52.6 54.6 Source: Climate Variations Bulletin, Historical Climatology Series 4-7. December 1998 researchers detailed how the warm weather had affected various sectors. Their report on the natur- al environment was largely favorable, noting that ?bird populations were in general favoured by the mild winter weather of 1995.? Fewer algae blooms than expected meant water quality was main- tained. The evidence showed that a sustained increase in temperature of (as in 1995) ?would lead to a substantial increase in [forest] productivity.? But in 1995 the well-being of certain deciduous trees, especially beech, did decline. AGRICULTURE. Farmers benefited from the warmer weather: arable crops, like wheat, barley, oilseed rape, and sugar beets, did well; but the lack of rainfall hurt the production of potatoes and some vegetables. Irrigation, they pointed out, could mitigate those side effects. Unfortunately livestock farming did suffer, but the report stressed that sprinkling and dousing equipment could offset the effect of any warming on live- stock. Freshwater trout farming also lost ground: Water oxygenation, the study noted, would elimi- nate those problems. In total, the British farming sector lost about ?182 million (roughly $300 mil- lion at today?s exchange rates), virtually all of which stemmed from livestock losses, which could be mitigated if the climate warms. OTHER SECTORS. Moreover, savings in energy consumption more than offset those losses to some farmers. Consumers? natural gas bills alone were cut by ?220 million (about $350 million). On net, including an increase in electricity used for cooling, the UK. economy paid ?355 million 31 STATE OF THE CLIMATE REPORT 1999 WHY HIGHER TEMPERATURES ARE BETTER Table 2. Consumer energy costs in 1998, compared with recent levels. 32 Table 2. Consumer Energy Costs Category 1992?1996 1997 1998 Gasoline 100 99.5 773* Natural Gas 100 114.7 92.5? Electricity 100 91.6 88.6? *Average of the first eleven months. "Average of the first ten months. Sunni-.- Emu-Len; infra-matte): Agency, Department of Energy,- u' quill-nth] (nearly $600 million) less in energy costs. The Climate Research Unit also found that people needed to spend less on clothing, reduc? ing sales in that sector by ?383 million ($600 mil- lion) in 1995. The population, however, con- sumed ?134 million more in beer and Wine and increased their purchases of fruit and vegetables by ?25 million. The increased consumption of beer, wine, fruits, and vegetables suggests that warming would improve the British diet. In total, the researchers estimated that retail sales in 1995 fell by ?87 million (about $140 million), re?ecting a savings for households of the same magnitude. The British construction industry, like its American counterpart, is subject to delays and interruptions during bad weather. The report claims that ?in a warmer climate, the sector should be less affected by weather, since severe winter conditions, which cause the greatest dis? become less common.? The warm winter weather did improve transportation that season, though the hot sum- mer weather led to increased rutting of the roads and higher maintenance costs. On net, the researchers found that the unusually warm con- ditions in 1995 boosted transportation costs by a trivial ?16 million. Providing better asphalt would eliminate even that small cost while pre- serving the savings from reduced traffic delays and fewer potholes. CLIMATE. The researchers also showed that, as in New York City, warmer weather reduced deaths. A increase in average temperature cut mortality by about 7,000 per year. Even a three- degree boost in average temperatures would reduce deaths, more in the winter than the sum- mer, resulting in 3 percent fewer deaths or a sav- ing in human lives of about 17,500 for England STATE OF THE CLIMATE REPORT 1999 and Wales. According to the authors, the nice weather in the United Kingdom, again paralleling the United States, evidently led to ?a decrease in winter depression,? possibly to an increase in Vio- lent crime, but with increased levels of sociability. They were, however, unable to document these hypothesized changes. ECONOMY. Although there was ?some evidence? that December?s sunshine affected 4th quarter gross domestic product (GDP), they wrote, the impact on the economy as a whole was minus- cule. The researchers did find that the Retail Price Index was sensitive to weather ?uctu- ations and increased during long periods of hot weather, but they offered no explanation for this anomalous finding. Perhaps warm weather led to more spending, resulting in price increases. But if this were true, the GDP should have re?ected the higher level of consumption. In summary, the University of East Anglia researchers reported: ?Clear positive impacts (to the general public) were found for energy and health.? They added: ?For most areas of human activity in the UK. the greatest impacts are sus- tained from anomalous winter weather. In the transport and construction sectors, for example, activity is severely disrupted by severe winter weather, but the impact of very hot summer weather is by comparison small.? The hot years of 1998 in the United States and 1995 in the United Kingdom indicate that warm weather is good for human beings. People live longer; they spend more of their time outdoors; they save on energy and on clothing. Although people differ in their reactions, the great majority welcome winters that are a few degrees warmer. If we do get a warmer world, most men and women will echo Mr. Pogue and ?have a ball.? A References: Brenner, E., 1998. Winter? or How It Used to Be Known, Sunday Westchester Weekly, March 22. [-?nlutikuL JR. PI. al., lmJIIitt?i? ?if litr' Hut Weather of 995 in lltr? UK. Department ufthe Envimnment, Lininersity of East Anglia, Norwich. U. K. Revkin. A.C., 1998. The Winter the Cold Forgot; Home Pray for Snow, but Others Feei Spring Fever. The New York Times, Feb. Shelter. 1998. For Many. Winter was an Icing-Free Cakewalk, wilh [he Mild Weather. people Saved Money in energy Costs. Tht.? Elderly ?Had a linll." l? tinfnirer. March 20. Star Tribune Paul), 1998. Minm-snta Economy, Temperatures Moderate, Business Hal, March 18.